Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-09-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 373 2633 48 237 23 0 0 0
OW 0 88 26 231 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 198 331 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 557 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 862 818 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 102 3723 16432 9931
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 373 2541 46 270 79 0 0 0
OW 0 161 23 175 141 2 0 0
VODI 0 24 8 205 251 94 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 31 321 184 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 620 459 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 547 3925 16225 9931

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 648 19 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 42 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 106 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 377 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 425 1178 27
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57 648 19 132 41 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 7 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 47 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 47 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 159 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 565 1178 27

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2715 2780 24 77 13 0 0 0
OW 0 180 28 208 64 2 0 0
VODI 0 12 10 211 172 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 416 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 119 558 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 319 1671 271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2715 2840 36 179 67 0 0 0
OW 0 129 21 173 114 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 142 268 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 181 117 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 147 380 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 412 1650 271

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5234 414 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5234 413 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2681 2850 18 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 40 23 170 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 148 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 294 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 446 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 112 236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2681 2866 31 128 3 0 0 0
OW 0 24 13 181 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 274 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 121 152 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 342 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 218 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 895 1925 7 21 0 0 0 0
OW 19 395 11 41 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 19 151 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 182 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 90 320 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 278 845 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 896 1983 8 30 0 0 0 0
OW 18 286 8 35 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 97 10 91 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 10 39 90 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 133 250 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 341 844 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4341 1872 3 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 2 13 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 7 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4341 1850 3 37 2 0 0 0
OW 0 59 1 7 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 5 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10553 771 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10553 771 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9780 1652 7 47 4 0 0 0
OW 0 8 2 29 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 20 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9780 1646 6 47 6 0 0 0
OW 0 14 3 23 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4259 1258 18 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1 4 27 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 20 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 26 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 65 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4259 1254 15 30 6 0 0 0
OW 0 5 5 13 10 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 19 18 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 23 14 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 66 2 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 2060 10 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 2060 10 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19816 359 9 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19816 359 9 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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