Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20240 6508 46 202 21 0 0 0
OW 6 826 41 189 145 8 0 0
VODI 0 254 45 526 252 1 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 242 672 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 588 1077 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 6429 7161 202
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20029 6114 68 218 7 0 0 0
OW 30 1244 42 187 130 37 0 0
VODI 0 328 44 492 169 130 0 0
ODI 0 69 12 190 556 137 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 62 392 882 495 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2922 10262 557
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18781 8151 111 376 24 0 0 0
OW 0 161 31 385 107 3 0 0
VODI 0 23 17 349 479 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 647 211 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 441 1343 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2424 10200 1277
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18673 7815 86 291 29 0 0 0
OW 0 260 41 384 151 4 0 0
VODI 0 18 14 317 440 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 557 195 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 384 1096 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1333 8333 5151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18673 7836 90 361 61 0 0 0
OW 0 217 34 287 184 8 0 0
VODI 0 40 17 334 390 87 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 514 199 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 398 1017 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1395 8335 5151

Date: 2017-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17725 8257 87 350 12 0 0 0
OW 0 330 40 337 184 6 0 0
VODI 0 35 26 276 416 139 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 377 242 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 306 777 138 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1007 5884 8721
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17725 8247 96 467 97 2 0 0
OW 0 271 21 170 174 18 0 0
VODI 0 104 36 279 297 139 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 349 243 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 349 620 120 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1149 5903 8722

Date: 2017-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17126 8375 98 255 14 0 0 0
OW 0 271 53 388 88 2 0 0
VODI 0 17 14 343 341 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 746 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 223 1241 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1125 9868 4986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17126 8470 110 457 131 0 0 0
OW 0 189 47 268 226 5 0 0
VODI 0 4 8 249 441 131 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 346 299 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 235 682 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1400 9749 4986

Date: 2017-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16321 8768 76 231 3 0 0 0
OW 0 549 61 355 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 31 421 373 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 9 149 560 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 403 660 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 230 2103 10152 4060
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16321 8933 96 469 104 0 0 0
OW 0 396 44 286 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 29 278 429 29 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 126 389 179 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 64 310 577 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 229 2005 10137 4060

Date: 2017-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16691 8141 79 132 0 0 0 0
OW 0 836 68 274 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 47 447 388 15 0 0
ODI 0 13 7 144 563 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 461 509 55 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 241 1839 9391 5241
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16691 8413 117 359 62 11 0 0
OW 0 474 31 226 209 6 0 0
VODI 0 162 35 243 400 74 0 0
ODI 0 49 9 114 335 217 0 0
CDI 0 34 6 73 334 530 75 0
VCDI 0 0 3 16 321 1616 9371 5250


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