Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-09-21

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-25

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 772 2759 39 224 31 0 0 0
OW 0 157 32 240 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 13 456 414 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 1175 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 285 2344 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5945 18673 3036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 772 2483 25 196 40 0 0 0
OW 0 360 35 247 153 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 21 395 555 5 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 98 846 179 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 391 1601 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 6606 18631 3036

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 789 26 120 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 63 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 51 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 185 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 102 482 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 328 805 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 784 26 148 44 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 59 82 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 60 74 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 52 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 104 359 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 338 805 26

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3445 2969 19 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 136 32 127 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 10 301 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 32 414 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 80 768 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 296 977 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3445 2402 16 46 9 0 0 0
OW 0 453 22 104 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 208 12 181 107 3 0 0
ODI 0 52 11 124 234 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 48 203 480 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 557 1034 77

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5404 250 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5404 250 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3950 2534 16 38 1 0 0 0
OW 0 227 12 59 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 12 178 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 73 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3950 2692 21 79 24 0 0 0
OW 0 84 16 67 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 124 44 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 43 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1069 2326 9 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 89 16 52 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 134 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 219 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 97 216 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 138 876 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1069 2279 11 43 10 0 0 0
OW 0 132 14 59 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 106 125 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 192 54 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 285 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 698 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4114 2159 8 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4114 2143 7 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 1 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 16 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10852 478 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10852 478 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9631 1785 16 55 1 0 0 0
OW 0 16 4 22 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 23 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 31 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9631 1762 14 52 6 0 0 0
OW 0 31 5 11 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 29 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 21 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 40 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4103 1475 20 36 15 0 0 0
OW 0 4 4 16 9 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 6 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 35 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4103 1454 14 20 2 0 0 0
OW 0 22 3 18 9 3 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 23 19 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 68 2 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7150 1420 9 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7150 1420 9 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19799 375 9 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19799 375 9 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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