Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97437 3718 36 299 1 0 0 0
OW 0 153 16 211 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 7 129 383 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 572 359 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 134 1950 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1873 1164 53
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97715 3537 25 113 10 0 0 0
OW 0 260 17 219 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 10 210 288 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 440 202 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 386 1806 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1626 1960 4
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97094 4352 35 135 9 0 0 0
OW 0 135 15 126 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 6 234 149 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 487 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 564 1352 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 3048 1140 75
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97076 3842 35 208 87 0 0 0
OW 0 96 9 120 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 3 83 223 29 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 17 217 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 745 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3371 2354 42
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97076 3874 38 219 87 0 0 0
OW 0 67 6 110 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 3 81 220 35 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 16 182 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 188 775 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3299 2337 42

Date: 2017-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96652 4166 29 209 28 0 0 0
OW 0 59 8 140 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 92 254 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 189 130 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 726 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2793 3139 263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96652 4173 29 231 38 0 0 0
OW 0 52 9 111 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 4 98 224 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 198 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 33 788 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2738 3107 263

Date: 2017-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96904 3922 33 192 31 0 0 0
OW 0 27 10 128 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 77 213 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 282 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 771 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1136 3446 1716
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96904 3887 29 184 42 0 0 0
OW 0 54 12 99 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 96 246 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 206 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 55 685 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1214 3444 1716

Date: 2017-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96748 4031 42 245 27 0 0 0
OW 0 36 8 107 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 4 68 212 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 173 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 664 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 814 3352 2280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96748 3985 38 220 35 0 0 0
OW 0 63 8 110 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 6 66 258 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 29 147 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 60 596 21 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 855 3351 2279

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97449 3448 33 171 25 0 0 0
OW 0 50 10 180 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 169 102 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 166 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 523 100 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 488 1525 1928 2526
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97449 3411 30 140 13 0 0 0
OW 0 64 10 163 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 4 212 108 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 147 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 473 84 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 576 1534 1928 2526


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