Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10118 7206 50 73 2 0 0 0
OW 0 231 51 363 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 15 350 435 141 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 128 1158 1154 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 98 2538 6382 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 1243 97
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9532 7465 43 132 2 0 0 0
OW 0 275 50 281 120 15 0 0
VODI 0 64 30 326 419 154 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 131 948 1094 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 3085 5126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 272 2135 195
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9795 7485 41 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 108 85 302 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 467 196 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 932 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 458 2422 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2728 5912 865
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9364 7712 50 83 0 0 0 0
OW 0 270 56 265 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 26 512 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 207 751 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 955 745 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 278 6747 3897 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9364 7777 63 128 0 0 0 0
OW 0 194 44 259 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 25 475 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 190 719 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 943 819 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 286 6671 3897 0

Date: 2017-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9945 6786 46 135 0 0 0 0
OW 0 400 55 278 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 21 431 263 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 761 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 653 875 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 185 6902 4107 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9945 6903 53 209 3 0 0 0
OW 0 266 49 251 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 20 383 286 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 736 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 642 944 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 6835 4092 0

Date: 2017-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8988 7369 47 145 2 0 0 0
OW 0 370 38 158 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 22 461 229 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 900 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 327 1500 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3461 7252 660
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8988 7466 51 196 38 0 0 0
OW 0 285 45 218 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 11 339 418 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 634 164 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 299 1103 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 3703 7022 660

Date: 2017-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8518 7345 53 211 12 0 0 0
OW 1 303 31 239 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 16 255 419 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 438 300 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 154 1273 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 744 7598 3883
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8519 7390 57 318 63 1 0 0
OW 0 246 30 219 175 10 0 0
VODI 0 33 13 171 464 163 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 350 447 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 68 987 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 732 7238 3883

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7767 7441 47 189 42 0 0 0
OW 14 311 34 232 140 31 0 0
VODI 0 21 14 218 356 107 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 302 366 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 914 293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 447 4919 7744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7781 7581 60 347 208 11 0 0
OW 0 168 28 187 167 74 0 0
VODI 0 24 7 112 338 331 41 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 163 469 175 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 38 656 839 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 324 4200 7744


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