Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20192 6714 75 248 34 6 0 0
OW 0 543 61 368 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 28 675 281 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 226 812 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 693 1637 378 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 6447 6119 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19581 6976 92 200 67 1 0 0
OW 0 663 47 271 125 19 0 0
VODI 0 184 37 556 313 121 0 0
ODI 0 2 5 235 477 304 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 566 1149 337 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 6347 7162 13
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20229 6869 53 144 22 1 0 0
OW 0 511 56 244 53 1 0 0
VODI 0 131 41 576 184 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 207 729 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 582 1158 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 6153 7778 25
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20404 6427 56 245 65 0 0 0
OW 0 684 41 161 147 3 0 0
VODI 0 211 53 521 241 13 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 253 614 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 678 963 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 8016 5778 40
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20404 6687 69 262 118 2 0 0
OW 0 468 34 179 147 5 0 0
VODI 0 174 46 472 196 13 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 267 563 120 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 678 917 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 8056 5749 40

Date: 2017-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20086 6408 63 206 19 0 0 0
OW 22 973 40 215 144 9 0 0
VODI 0 285 43 487 232 67 0 0
ODI 0 42 13 203 652 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 416 1102 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 4787 8444 547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20108 6703 79 261 93 2 0 0
OW 0 744 28 208 95 22 0 0
VODI 0 221 39 411 212 56 0 0
ODI 0 40 13 242 583 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 492 917 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 4976 8435 547

Date: 2017-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19245 8028 92 252 15 0 0 0
OW 0 243 52 304 24 5 0 0
VODI 0 37 20 625 210 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 52 921 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 233 1686 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2158 10637 763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19245 7169 73 255 55 0 0 0
OW 0 772 39 256 105 12 0 0
VODI 0 313 38 462 252 80 0 0
ODI 0 55 14 207 552 119 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 53 404 1041 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 2662 10705 763

Date: 2017-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18443 8089 112 470 54 0 0 0
OW 0 145 34 339 216 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 9 311 503 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 496 326 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 403 1143 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1701 10140 2514
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18443 7329 75 270 29 0 0 0
OW 0 613 40 221 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 290 35 475 473 25 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 217 539 209 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 432 920 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 2079 10322 2514

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17649 8616 110 271 12 0 0 0
OW 0 288 49 389 140 5 0 0
VODI 0 32 16 305 411 119 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 495 156 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 370 932 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1339 7079 6854
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17610 7547 92 213 32 0 0 0
OW 39 639 22 198 114 4 0 0
VODI 0 589 35 270 319 69 0 0
ODI 0 156 22 262 349 197 1 0
CDI 0 5 4 93 377 594 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 246 1687 7073 6854


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