Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127747 17638 161 620 37 6 0 0
OW 0 927 128 942 228 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 50 1154 1099 155 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 405 2542 1602 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 925 6125 7174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 8345 8526 150
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126828 17978 160 445 79 1 0 0
OW 0 1198 114 771 293 34 0 0
VODI 0 314 77 1092 1020 289 0 0
ODI 0 2 5 402 1865 1600 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1109 6040 5571 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 8245 11257 212
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127118 18706 129 354 31 1 0 0
OW 0 754 156 672 94 1 0 0
VODI 0 152 50 1277 529 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 310 2148 150 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1604 4932 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 11929 14830 965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126844 17981 141 536 152 0 0 0
OW 0 1050 106 546 255 3 0 0
VODI 0 312 82 1116 569 42 0 0
ODI 0 18 7 477 1582 312 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1790 2453 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 307 18134 12029 82
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126844 18338 170 609 205 2 0 0
OW 0 729 84 548 264 5 0 0
VODI 0 283 74 1028 554 48 0 0
ODI 0 11 8 473 1464 352 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 1809 2511 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 359 18026 11983 82

Date: 2017-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126683 17360 138 550 47 0 0 0
OW 22 1432 103 633 295 9 0 0
VODI 0 330 69 1010 749 80 0 0
ODI 0 42 13 316 1602 219 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1100 2703 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 215 14482 15690 810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126705 17779 161 701 134 2 0 0
OW 0 1062 86 570 247 22 0 0
VODI 0 283 63 892 722 80 0 0
ODI 0 40 13 359 1517 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 1167 2649 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 221 14549 15634 810

Date: 2017-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125137 19319 172 589 48 0 0 0
OW 0 640 100 590 154 5 0 0
VODI 0 63 44 1163 652 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 82 2103 153 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 606 3957 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 6755 21335 3139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125137 18522 153 635 135 0 0 0
OW 0 1111 96 573 300 12 0 0
VODI 0 335 53 897 916 100 0 0
ODI 0 55 14 263 1392 351 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 56 758 2829 397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 7579 21171 3139

Date: 2017-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123709 19465 207 926 93 0 0 0
OW 1 484 73 685 419 2 0 0
VODI 0 35 29 634 1134 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 1107 700 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 640 3080 410 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 3259 21090 8677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123710 18704 170 808 127 1 0 0
OW 0 922 78 550 408 10 0 0
VODI 0 346 54 712 1195 195 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 254 1036 751 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 560 2503 587 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 3666 20911 8676

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122865 19505 190 631 79 0 0 0
OW 14 649 93 801 327 36 0 0
VODI 0 53 31 692 869 228 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 963 544 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 971 1946 408 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 497 3311 13926 17124
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122840 18539 182 700 253 11 0 0
OW 39 871 60 548 315 78 0 0
VODI 0 636 46 594 765 401 41 0
ODI 0 156 22 357 659 696 176 0
CDI 0 5 4 143 888 1334 971 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 826 3545 13201 17124


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