Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-09-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 852 3666 38 179 5 0 0 0
OW 0 309 63 313 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 24 508 408 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 1529 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 406 5831 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7221 14141 981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 852 3303 42 213 26 0 0 0
OW 0 539 32 285 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 45 439 634 123 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 98 1087 1005 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 499 4925 3427 181
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 7096 10892 800

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 306 783 23 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 56 12 73 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 116 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 153 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 150 208 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 496 643 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 306 780 24 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 9 89 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 74 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 110 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 189 173 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 496 642 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3089 2777 19 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 214 38 160 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 12 362 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 49 492 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 126 741 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 321 1314 71
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3089 2776 30 116 28 0 0 0
OW 0 207 31 152 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 6 248 247 55 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 51 159 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 227 496 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 405 1300 71

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5540 114 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5540 114 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3488 2933 25 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 15 122 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 136 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 257 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 59 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3488 2782 19 63 3 0 0 0
OW 0 105 11 34 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 7 131 80 8 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 99 228 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 25 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1565 2304 8 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 27 53 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 106 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 149 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 66 220 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 618 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1565 2255 8 18 1 0 0 0
OW 0 89 18 57 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 11 82 93 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 151 106 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 145 649 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4630 1686 1 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4630 1645 0 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11077 254 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11077 254 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10323 1213 8 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 2 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10323 1181 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 6 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 21 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 44 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4353 1217 17 50 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 49 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4353 1216 14 41 34 4 0 0
OW 0 1 3 16 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 31 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8007 578 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8007 578 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 315 7 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 315 7 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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