Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19920 6962 69 225 48 0 0 0
OW 0 703 61 400 71 1 0 0
VODI 0 196 46 724 406 5 0 0
ODI 0 10 8 315 858 596 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 488 4241 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 5382 3947 25
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20061 6634 62 122 37 0 0 0
OW 0 929 46 356 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 319 61 654 339 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 10 386 1003 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 924 3414 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 6497 3745 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20393 6742 70 205 19 0 0 0
OW 0 491 60 359 48 1 0 0
VODI 0 127 38 805 299 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 163 1160 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 403 4442 237 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 4554 5094 35
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19969 7124 63 204 37 1 0 0
OW 0 660 62 243 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 239 49 729 153 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 334 829 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 811 2061 509 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 4522 7050 80
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19969 7142 79 249 36 1 0 0
OW 0 647 44 269 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 234 48 714 208 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 278 653 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 920 1287 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 5278 7345 80

Date: 2017-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19421 7342 81 212 53 3 0 0
OW 0 609 53 274 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 188 38 566 355 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 189 588 290 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 412 1561 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 6767 6458 13
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19421 7484 90 300 94 3 0 0
OW 0 488 47 290 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 35 541 389 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 504 249 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 427 1220 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 7126 6597 13

Date: 2017-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20181 6873 67 122 20 0 0 0
OW 0 459 72 277 43 4 0 0
VODI 0 31 34 711 193 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 84 909 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 324 1468 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 5427 8370 87
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20181 6726 78 215 62 4 0 0
OW 0 501 51 291 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 38 510 366 57 0 0
ODI 0 7 7 141 432 246 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 517 966 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 5718 8248 87

Date: 2017-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20559 6427 59 189 78 0 0 0
OW 0 537 40 174 146 1 0 0
VODI 0 162 62 517 214 30 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 244 679 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 699 1020 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 7740 6008 159
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20559 6357 63 278 107 1 0 0
OW 0 503 40 155 210 12 0 0
VODI 0 251 45 394 316 58 0 0
ODI 0 18 13 202 440 146 0 0
CDI 0 3 4 112 668 782 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 7866 5998 159

Date: 2017-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20240 6508 46 202 21 0 0 0
OW 6 826 41 189 145 8 0 0
VODI 0 254 45 526 252 1 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 242 672 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 588 1077 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 6429 7161 202
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20246 6589 61 275 44 3 0 0
OW 0 588 27 201 153 6 0 0
VODI 0 351 35 387 338 0 0 0
ODI 0 70 12 204 415 113 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 95 663 767 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 6694 7098 202


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