Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96806 3336 24 67 38 0 0 0
OW 0 182 31 112 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 583 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 1226 707 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 2318 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1962 1051 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97184 3064 10 49 36 0 0 0
OW 0 256 21 94 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 24 549 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 91 1362 198 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 655 1948 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1692 1684 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95780 4672 33 97 19 0 0 0
OW 0 40 23 238 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 6 509 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 1572 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 569 2064 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1726 1475 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97414 3232 20 38 28 0 0 0
OW 0 122 35 171 41 4 0 0
VODI 0 35 14 413 171 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 1243 175 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 846 1710 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2596 679 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97414 3235 30 61 24 0 0 0
OW 0 98 20 148 39 4 0 0
VODI 0 56 19 384 147 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 1433 255 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 686 1627 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2607 682 0

Date: 2017-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97324 3488 17 61 10 0 0 0
OW 0 255 23 113 29 10 0 0
VODI 0 66 21 469 104 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 1125 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 799 1696 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2150 1191 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97324 3494 18 61 6 0 0 0
OW 0 195 20 111 27 9 0 0
VODI 0 120 23 422 81 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 1361 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 592 1627 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2162 1199 0

Date: 2017-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97829 3445 19 70 3 0 0 0
OW 0 127 28 212 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 351 214 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 1477 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 408 2007 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1815 866 82
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97829 3011 15 62 5 0 0 0
OW 0 352 12 103 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 214 22 350 132 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 125 1213 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 626 1507 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 2282 865 82

Date: 2017-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97470 3933 30 109 2 0 0 0
OW 0 113 16 225 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 8 242 263 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 766 418 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 337 1491 647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1387 1408 128
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97470 3375 14 55 5 0 0 0
OW 0 468 16 119 15 4 0 0
VODI 0 225 23 351 190 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 73 661 454 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 521 1063 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1776 1745 128

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97437 3718 36 299 1 0 0 0
OW 0 153 16 211 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 7 129 383 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 572 359 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 134 1950 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1873 1164 53
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97437 3348 18 59 1 0 0 0
OW 0 380 21 149 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 168 17 385 285 12 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 66 522 348 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 305 1427 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 2400 1391 53


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