Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128145 16294 82 397 52 0 0 0
OW 0 1585 155 763 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 327 128 2186 1324 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 685 11073 2635 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 1878 8556 386 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 63 7165 3011 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126934 17103 105 529 174 0 0 0
OW 0 1500 97 735 461 28 0 0
VODI 0 475 136 1690 1218 384 0 0
ODI 0 26 18 750 6051 6722 203 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 1574 8246 1013 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 43 5678 5098 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126812 18874 117 334 48 0 0 0
OW 0 1113 158 896 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 183 79 2138 574 3 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 571 5909 220 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 2689 12735 1403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 4803 7199 53
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128005 17584 109 334 88 5 0 0
OW 0 1305 137 723 156 8 0 0
VODI 0 303 99 1801 842 30 0 0
ODI 0 23 16 616 4756 771 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 2627 11976 1764 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 7903 5017 13
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128005 17795 130 464 97 5 0 0
OW 0 1059 108 632 171 8 0 0
VODI 0 350 109 1715 848 26 0 0
ODI 0 11 14 654 4829 824 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 2521 11168 1645 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 8662 5134 13

Date: 2017-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127580 17754 92 242 53 0 0 0
OW 0 1749 111 573 115 11 0 0
VODI 0 516 121 1808 721 9 0 0
ODI 0 41 17 708 4295 522 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 2304 12346 1402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 8443 5435 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127580 18107 109 344 69 1 0 0
OW 0 1302 98 517 96 9 0 0
VODI 0 601 116 1657 807 14 0 0
ODI 0 50 18 806 4224 799 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 2276 11231 1182 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 9277 5655 15

Date: 2017-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127508 18542 124 428 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1041 165 794 88 1 0 0
VODI 0 167 54 2116 806 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 285 5798 245 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1309 14283 553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 7318 5285 82
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127508 17590 115 499 102 1 0 0
OW 0 1358 87 504 218 13 0 0
VODI 0 736 119 1500 854 45 0 0
ODI 0 66 22 1023 3740 615 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 2920 10033 918 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 11140 4920 82

Date: 2017-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127564 18584 138 399 28 0 0 0
OW 0 990 145 847 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 253 69 1626 901 21 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 507 3547 1519 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1174 9369 4618 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 5752 8646 193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127564 17332 109 361 42 0 0 0
OW 0 1591 96 564 157 5 0 0
VODI 0 831 125 1441 831 53 4 0
ODI 0 77 22 938 2531 1419 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 2165 6797 3793 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 8387 9413 193

Date: 2017-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127747 17638 161 620 37 6 0 0
OW 0 927 128 942 228 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 50 1154 1099 155 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 405 2542 1602 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 925 6125 7174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 8345 8526 150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127747 16677 125 446 102 7 0 0
OW 0 1331 78 591 192 48 0 0
VODI 0 665 105 1306 977 169 9 0
ODI 0 151 34 680 1825 1610 187 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 1697 4741 5212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 9658 10382 150


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