Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95672 4343 30 105 0 0 0 0
OW 0 115 29 187 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 479 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 1512 261 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 539 2102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 936 1670 809
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96114 3912 30 107 1 0 0 0
OW 0 197 26 135 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 16 539 131 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 1569 222 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1146 1307 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1492 1963 12
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95835 4368 31 105 12 0 0 0
OW 0 100 43 176 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 508 213 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 2039 304 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 473 1783 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1959 1086 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97559 2619 23 51 40 0 0 0
OW 0 137 41 149 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 498 220 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 1726 381 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 303 2136 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 2213 759 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97559 2638 32 69 42 0 0 0
OW 0 116 27 135 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 9 453 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 1785 503 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 341 2101 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 2126 740 0

Date: 2017-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96870 3298 13 58 40 0 0 0
OW 0 130 36 165 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 11 367 318 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 1467 319 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 377 2280 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 1644 1443 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96870 3307 20 97 32 0 0 0
OW 0 109 29 128 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 10 282 215 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 122 1662 427 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 291 2265 205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 1551 1398 0

Date: 2017-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95968 4509 33 49 19 0 0 0
OW 0 73 37 213 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 533 123 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1658 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 485 2116 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1459 1656 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95968 4237 28 63 26 0 0 0
OW 0 258 13 67 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 30 473 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 203 1480 299 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 713 1590 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1785 1644 0

Date: 2017-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97260 3215 29 127 17 0 0 0
OW 0 48 18 231 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 342 280 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 1295 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 719 1942 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1865 1355 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97260 3015 18 73 24 0 0 0
OW 0 178 15 139 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 13 406 233 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 106 1203 386 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 845 1602 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 2057 1341 0

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97585 3192 13 45 17 0 0 0
OW 0 223 20 112 38 3 0 0
VODI 0 64 24 461 102 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 1205 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1107 1401 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2262 1085 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97585 2888 9 46 5 0 0 0
OW 0 277 7 95 37 2 0 0
VODI 0 278 30 304 179 5 0 0
ODI 0 36 10 199 1005 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 67 1216 1168 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2412 1085 0


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