Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19341 5959 59 286 8 0 0 0
OW 176 1369 64 474 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 199 53 1096 854 2 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 522 3742 354 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 1576 2624 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 40 1941 4374 449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18230 6989 53 257 4 0 0 0
OW 189 1460 66 468 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 334 54 921 1067 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 520 3613 370 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 182 1542 2217 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 66 4290 2908 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19165 7374 52 296 5 0 0 0
OW 0 737 82 531 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 28 1205 440 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 196 5028 210 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 672 2898 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 107 4909 1823 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18848 7613 58 271 64 0 0 0
OW 0 787 67 446 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 52 1134 434 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 453 4492 542 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 969 2323 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 5588 1408 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18848 7595 66 374 70 0 0 0
OW 0 749 49 356 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 190 58 1052 485 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 519 4244 547 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1172 2351 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 70 5555 1400 0

Date: 2017-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19194 7027 41 369 98 0 0 0
OW 0 633 65 489 275 0 0 0
VODI 0 136 51 576 766 180 0 0
ODI 0 16 9 421 2632 2417 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 776 2125 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 48 4496 2801 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19194 7120 57 456 157 0 0 0
OW 0 495 50 408 243 1 0 0
VODI 0 178 50 537 827 147 0 0
ODI 0 19 9 460 2468 2256 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 851 2302 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 49 4512 2781 0

Date: 2017-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19867 6770 60 289 12 0 0 0
OW 0 480 64 588 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 24 882 465 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 182 1905 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 497 5276 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 3325 4575 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19867 6440 50 414 69 0 0 0
OW 0 574 42 478 341 0 0 0
VODI 0 245 43 568 715 108 0 0
ODI 0 41 15 450 1227 3111 101 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 641 2144 463 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 40 3338 4295 2

Date: 2017-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20150 6934 77 231 57 1 0 0
OW 0 538 54 441 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 48 836 333 6 0 0
ODI 0 9 4 334 1563 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 964 4152 294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 4311 4153 34
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20150 6241 64 295 91 1 0 0
OW 0 892 48 409 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 374 48 535 640 40 0 0
ODI 0 99 22 548 1398 2128 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 65 664 2224 377 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 73 4158 4070 34

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19920 6962 69 225 48 0 0 0
OW 0 703 61 400 71 1 0 0
VODI 0 196 46 724 406 5 0 0
ODI 0 10 8 315 858 596 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 488 4241 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 5382 3947 25
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19866 5999 74 313 111 1 0 0
OW 54 1279 42 383 177 1 0 0
VODI 0 451 40 467 500 140 0 0
ODI 0 127 20 415 541 2396 50 0
CDI 0 15 8 88 542 2659 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 25 5028 3984 25


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