Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124572 17664 115 452 8 0 0 0
OW 177 1838 158 1034 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 310 96 2545 1761 2 0 0
ODI 0 8 7 842 11089 1602 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 2678 9300 401 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 40 2885 6044 1258
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123919 18252 105 415 5 0 0 0
OW 190 2173 153 856 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 496 123 2412 2212 2 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 761 11028 1662 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 186 3451 7540 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 82 5782 4871 12
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125377 18865 104 443 17 0 0 0
OW 1 1272 215 975 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 59 2782 1009 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 308 13592 1005 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1753 8761 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 107 6868 2911 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127577 16811 97 354 104 0 0 0
OW 0 1475 177 820 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 200 106 2502 1192 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 594 12105 1814 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 2024 8671 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 7801 2167 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127577 16955 137 503 112 0 0 0
OW 0 1242 132 789 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 284 107 2273 1455 6 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 702 11235 1735 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 2638 8864 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 116 7681 2140 0

Date: 2017-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127408 16856 69 458 138 0 0 0
OW 0 1415 142 815 331 0 0 0
VODI 0 355 137 1653 1603 181 0 0
ODI 0 18 10 712 9147 4276 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1452 8386 985 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 65 6140 4244 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127408 17167 106 622 194 0 0 0
OW 0 1062 119 760 307 1 0 0
VODI 0 396 123 1499 1754 163 0 0
ODI 0 19 10 763 8783 3861 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1632 8895 1050 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 66 6063 4179 0

Date: 2017-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125992 19159 114 381 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1076 178 1023 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 53 2138 837 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 306 6456 342 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1383 14366 1073 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 54 4833 6979 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125991 18455 113 599 108 0 0 0
OW 1 1307 93 741 442 0 0 0
VODI 0 526 124 1625 1588 130 0 0
ODI 0 44 17 850 5026 6388 387 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1693 7902 1726 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 62 5123 5939 2

Date: 2017-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128347 17287 121 417 74 1 0 0
OW 0 1155 125 807 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 244 105 1810 839 16 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 623 4961 836 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 2876 11960 1747 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 6220 6199 34
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128347 16237 104 463 115 1 0 0
OW 0 1593 98 697 268 0 0 0
VODI 0 743 116 1511 1508 143 0 0
ODI 0 123 38 915 5060 4903 335 0
CDI 0 0 1 81 1905 7771 2200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 111 6215 5411 34

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128109 17360 97 322 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1519 128 656 126 4 0 0
VODI 0 420 108 1787 796 7 0 0
ODI 0 43 19 696 4141 975 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 2142 12227 1815 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 8006 5390 25
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128055 15920 117 498 133 1 0 0
OW 54 2053 73 639 319 4 0 0
VODI 0 1127 105 1177 1237 285 0 0
ODI 0 227 48 1014 3410 4699 548 0
CDI 0 15 9 165 2145 8790 1594 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 52 7440 5069 25


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