Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-08-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-28

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 232 2324 42 162 3 0 0 0
OW 0 326 74 473 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 26 1621 621 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 12861 639 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1222 7757 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5479 2790 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 232 2106 36 212 15 0 0 0
OW 0 383 62 471 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 182 41 1315 2410 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 359 9219 1564 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 2991 5902 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 6409 2789 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1007 31 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 2 150 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 0 192 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 262 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 162 121 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 547 360 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 928 22 119 0 0 0 0
OW 1 55 2 122 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 9 132 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 0 103 114 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 281 60 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 104 593 360 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2996 3141 10 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 702 49 179 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 26 609 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 531 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 254 782 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 357 32 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2867 2450 7 10 0 0 0 0
OW 129 1126 24 175 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 305 48 317 103 14 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 320 324 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 449 511 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 525 32 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4782 742 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 9 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4782 742 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 2 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 7 35 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3856 2396 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 181 19 74 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 7 214 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 426 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3856 2372 4 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 182 15 42 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 214 168 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 289 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1303 2607 9 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 142 23 41 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 14 123 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 188 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 619 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1303 2483 9 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 193 10 30 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 20 88 49 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 51 141 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 600 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4626 1685 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4626 1678 4 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 4 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10201 1103 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10201 1089 4 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 0 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9108 2166 37 166 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 10 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 39 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9108 2144 37 168 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 5 19 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 6 32 13 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 43 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4415 1288 4 93 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4415 1288 4 93 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8143 439 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8143 439 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19857 351 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19857 351 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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