Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94896 4606 59 320 18 0 0 0
OW 0 91 37 290 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 332 291 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 1346 102 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 813 3365 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1056 1030 218
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94613 5074 45 117 0 0 0 0
OW 0 192 43 264 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 13 344 315 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 1338 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 976 2780 483 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 309 1284 696
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94695 5063 63 237 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 31 213 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 367 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 141 1888 96 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1040 1446 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 128 1570 1638
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95740 4184 41 142 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 28 222 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 425 151 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 160 1761 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1011 1801 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 347 1491 1427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95740 4188 47 149 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 20 199 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 8 353 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 248 1742 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1068 1782 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 339 1481 1427

Date: 2017-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95795 4255 26 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 168 27 161 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 14 462 207 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 1437 368 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 510 1783 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 921 2369 276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95795 4254 25 99 0 0 0 0
OW 0 153 25 142 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 14 364 150 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 170 1396 422 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 611 1727 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 922 2379 276

Date: 2017-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95421 4560 62 252 3 0 0 0
OW 0 116 33 169 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 7 545 176 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 2312 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 530 1698 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1660 1389 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95421 4438 58 268 9 0 0 0
OW 0 179 23 121 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 21 424 154 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 1467 273 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1371 1243 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1969 1378 0

Date: 2017-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96385 3804 26 67 41 0 0 0
OW 0 137 50 152 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 429 309 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 1967 298 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 402 1881 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2026 997 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96385 3672 33 107 63 0 0 0
OW 0 200 21 104 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 21 344 292 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 112 1304 377 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1032 1556 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 2271 1021 0

Date: 2017-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96806 3336 24 67 38 0 0 0
OW 0 182 31 112 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 583 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 1226 707 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 2318 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1962 1051 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96806 3170 29 102 59 0 0 0
OW 0 178 10 132 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 12 352 277 3 0 0
ODI 0 25 13 230 689 722 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 595 1819 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 2443 1102 0


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