Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18469 6715 55 325 28 0 0 0
OW 0 1060 57 455 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 36 961 1192 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 452 2618 590 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 2014 3622 397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 2611 3941 10
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18148 7188 67 285 79 2 0 0
OW 0 1018 51 478 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 256 49 883 1317 6 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 581 2625 342 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 1921 3243 1341 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 76 176 2934 2612
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18895 6388 59 249 43 1 0 0
OW 146 1275 65 455 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 34 1283 453 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 347 4139 326 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1081 3474 274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 573 3654 2525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19229 6145 58 281 17 0 0 0
OW 151 1293 59 471 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 55 1222 705 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 478 3809 410 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1335 2832 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 26 1536 4085 1201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19215 6105 63 362 20 0 0 0
OW 165 1292 60 454 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 49 1127 758 6 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 517 3743 492 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 1331 2717 242 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 25 1566 4100 1201

Date: 2017-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18943 6291 62 298 6 0 0 0
OW 177 1432 55 462 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 258 70 1085 876 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 3 519 3616 449 1 0
CDI 0 3 2 157 1494 2548 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 71 3280 3593 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19000 6344 74 371 8 0 0 0
OW 120 1352 46 488 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 286 64 937 915 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 595 3599 416 5 0
CDI 0 2 2 130 1447 2622 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 84 3239 3585 0

Date: 2017-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18956 7352 58 243 3 0 0 0
OW 0 875 82 509 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 32 1263 378 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 224 5151 213 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 703 3134 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 4723 1793 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18826 6584 52 313 9 0 0 0
OW 130 1305 44 509 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 378 67 763 992 14 0 0
ODI 0 28 9 534 3529 388 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 133 1614 2110 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 123 5558 1803 0

Date: 2017-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19539 7043 50 272 6 0 0 0
OW 0 767 52 504 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 52 1249 365 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 424 4764 252 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 955 2414 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 4784 2098 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19338 5993 49 353 14 0 0 0
OW 201 1306 36 427 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 514 45 897 676 6 0 0
ODI 0 103 25 554 3451 341 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 241 1898 1707 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 120 5396 2130 0

Date: 2017-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20071 6373 43 301 14 0 0 0
OW 0 775 73 475 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 56 799 721 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 420 4204 902 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 969 2140 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 63 5203 1960 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19987 5406 46 308 34 0 0 0
OW 84 1231 42 409 80 6 0 0
VODI 0 509 60 557 931 26 0 0
ODI 0 145 21 490 3041 825 0 0
CDI 0 20 6 268 1840 1327 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 100 6065 1986 0


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