Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91706 7740 60 171 14 0 0 0
OW 0 180 45 270 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 12 489 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 12 1446 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 420 3562 339 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 137 1539 88
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93062 6468 55 171 4 0 0 0
OW 0 199 48 361 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 13 455 361 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 30 1206 780 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 245 3015 1048 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 162 1320 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94507 5326 64 154 0 0 0 0
OW 0 128 48 313 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 11 402 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 1120 287 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 226 4122 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 447 1116 279
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94529 5185 59 172 3 0 0 0
OW 0 149 53 317 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 387 199 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 1318 126 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 858 3443 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 894 1017 234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94529 5200 63 147 3 0 0 0
OW 0 133 45 319 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 11 418 165 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 1302 131 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 912 3412 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 919 1026 234

Date: 2017-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94208 5490 54 121 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 42 308 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 6 321 312 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 1350 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 853 3212 165 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1089 1084 151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94208 5489 51 105 0 0 0 0
OW 0 152 45 296 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 6 357 278 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 1283 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 964 3205 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1053 1103 152

Date: 2017-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95128 4734 57 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 69 34 221 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 320 191 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 2008 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 484 2080 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 1653 1614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95128 4555 44 110 0 0 0 0
OW 0 207 38 207 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 9 334 331 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 1380 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 963 2117 1206 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 628 1614

Date: 2017-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95356 4510 51 143 0 0 0 0
OW 0 65 29 214 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 384 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 192 1817 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1090 1588 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 123 1563 1593
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95356 4320 43 134 1 0 0 0
OW 0 224 31 148 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 9 505 223 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 146 1413 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1404 1686 975 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 762 1593

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95672 4343 30 105 0 0 0 0
OW 0 115 29 187 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 479 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 1512 261 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 539 2102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 936 1670 809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95672 4048 21 90 6 0 0 0
OW 0 302 16 80 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 26 539 124 8 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 192 1275 277 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 782 2905 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 109 1470 809


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