Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16766 7761 83 364 31 0 0 0
OW 0 625 26 452 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 50 706 465 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 547 2572 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 2275 3617 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 3643 4556 589
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17426 7122 81 313 38 0 0 0
OW 0 748 38 403 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 298 50 660 590 2 0 0
ODI 0 31 9 536 2708 160 0 0
CDI 0 5 3 268 2561 3371 156 5
VCDI 0 0 0 5 84 4168 3726 230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17109 7807 81 227 20 1 0 0
OW 0 928 55 463 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 124 31 1103 519 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 268 3677 262 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 956 5271 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 19 3055 3682 94
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18130 7014 59 258 18 0 0 0
OW 0 1043 65 476 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 37 984 970 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 221 3271 281 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1910 3938 206 2
VCDI 0 0 0 5 3 3314 3456 16
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18130 7252 68 363 34 0 0 0
OW 0 709 42 390 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 208 51 874 783 12 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 305 3301 315 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 2028 3943 235 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1 3265 3426 16

Date: 2017-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18293 6990 53 242 86 1 0 0
OW 0 1025 42 477 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 41 892 1289 14 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 515 2569 546 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1586 3590 1134 8
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 994 3827 1266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18293 7169 63 347 113 1 0 0
OW 0 707 19 396 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 342 53 824 1011 41 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 536 2752 564 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 101 1624 3556 1157 4
VCDI 0 0 0 3 14 982 3802 1270

Date: 2017-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19259 5620 53 251 69 2 0 0
OW 273 1343 65 388 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 27 1400 313 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 209 4483 193 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 978 3756 406 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 360 3784 2415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19532 6053 61 400 106 2 0 0
OW 0 709 34 413 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 304 46 973 1151 25 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 419 2900 442 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 1593 3637 1282 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 78 206 2903 2415

Date: 2017-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18638 6794 62 268 18 0 0 0
OW 122 1228 67 482 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 42 1205 622 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 356 4027 403 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 1289 2973 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 23 910 4102 1854
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18760 7052 62 424 51 0 0 0
OW 0 702 42 350 88 7 0 0
VODI 0 330 62 914 1309 62 0 0
ODI 0 20 5 539 2653 560 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 1877 3194 1273 11
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 464 3078 1843

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19341 5959 59 286 8 0 0 0
OW 176 1369 64 474 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 199 53 1096 854 2 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 522 3742 354 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 1576 2624 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 40 1941 4374 449
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19517 6360 68 455 54 0 0 0
OW 0 713 40 339 75 3 0 0
VODI 0 405 58 828 1467 82 0 0
ODI 0 55 13 592 2642 467 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 278 1961 2928 881 54
VCDI 0 0 0 2 37 1441 3655 395


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