Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-08-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114592 24360 233 836 86 0 0 0
OW 3 1041 136 1383 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 263 74 1808 1647 18 0 0
ODI 0 11 7 701 9062 1999 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 3639 12843 1328 11
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 3791 6194 677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117464 21827 205 791 85 0 0 0
OW 1 1283 135 1367 177 0 0 0
VODI 0 382 87 1670 2243 56 0 0
ODI 0 35 15 744 8471 2982 89 0
CDI 0 5 3 285 3608 10866 2449 5
VCDI 0 0 0 5 84 4330 5069 230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119168 21382 228 738 46 1 0 0
OW 1 1201 153 1207 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 50 2313 1030 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 394 10121 1112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 2162 15285 1513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 19 3505 4843 373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121107 19802 184 620 21 0 0 0
OW 1 1399 158 1228 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 71 2023 1946 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 423 9341 2011 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 3951 12867 636 2
VCDI 0 0 0 5 3 4208 4473 250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121107 20016 196 734 40 0 0 0
OW 1 1084 132 1105 128 0 0 0
VODI 0 272 85 1925 1750 17 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 519 9607 2123 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 3827 12768 656 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1 4184 4452 250

Date: 2017-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120645 20359 166 590 86 1 0 0
OW 1 1436 109 1268 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 364 82 1701 2758 33 0 0
ODI 0 21 10 737 8567 2741 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 88 2988 10897 2798 9
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 2083 4911 1417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120645 20565 169 751 125 1 0 0
OW 1 1097 97 1099 158 2 0 0
VODI 0 487 87 1670 2477 57 0 0
ODI 0 31 14 755 8706 2908 104 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 3063 10752 2734 4
VCDI 0 0 0 3 14 2035 4905 1422

Date: 2017-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123430 17732 162 531 69 2 0 0
OW 274 1631 166 973 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 190 48 2637 872 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 328 12744 890 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1869 11038 915 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 433 5971 4029
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123703 17762 160 765 112 2 0 0
OW 1 1192 103 1018 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 525 90 1908 2929 65 0 0
ODI 0 74 23 703 9087 2733 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 3274 9358 3307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 78 206 3531 4029

Date: 2017-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122594 19453 164 527 18 0 0 0
OW 123 1563 156 1107 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 76 2340 1555 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 700 11734 1306 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 2993 9131 767 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 23 1127 5884 3447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122716 19283 147 755 52 0 0 0
OW 1 1229 106 889 171 7 0 0
VODI 0 560 107 1927 3588 167 0 0
ODI 0 127 36 978 8335 2780 123 0
CDI 0 2 2 162 4196 8147 2691 11
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 464 3840 3436

Date: 2017-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124572 17664 115 452 8 0 0 0
OW 177 1838 158 1034 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 310 96 2545 1761 2 0 0
ODI 0 8 7 842 11089 1602 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 2678 9300 401 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 40 2885 6044 1258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124748 17572 126 720 60 0 0 0
OW 1 1354 82 890 164 3 0 0
VODI 0 747 126 1949 3845 178 0 0
ODI 0 147 41 1113 8095 2811 62 0
CDI 0 0 1 315 3398 9240 1258 54
VCDI 0 0 0 2 60 1557 5125 1204


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