Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90953 7714 101 522 42 0 0 0
OW 0 60 32 454 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 417 413 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 900 639 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 384 3678 1421 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 244 977 4
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90960 7720 110 538 46 0 0 0
OW 0 71 30 428 98 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 477 398 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 840 763 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 346 4470 539 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 575 624 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92403 6707 78 310 28 0 0 0
OW 0 74 33 355 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 493 227 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 1321 416 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 200 3594 865 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 1219 653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92062 7221 70 235 22 0 0 0
OW 0 146 42 297 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 10 506 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1382 524 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 203 3428 743 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 1210 649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92062 7228 78 313 28 0 0 0
OW 0 135 34 264 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 10 454 253 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 1338 444 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 255 3504 703 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 1250 648

Date: 2017-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93016 6462 59 180 10 0 0 0
OW 0 186 43 312 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 14 452 353 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 18 1312 682 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 363 3380 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 1398 123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93016 6472 69 273 12 0 0 0
OW 0 172 30 267 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 16 399 333 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 17 1285 602 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 412 3409 454 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 201 1426 123

Date: 2017-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93194 6537 74 192 5 0 0 0
OW 0 94 42 350 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 466 147 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 1263 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 229 3865 598 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 187 1315 366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93194 6363 59 256 10 0 0 0
OW 0 232 41 300 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 17 400 369 0 0 1
ODI 0 1 2 65 1081 861 0 10
CDI 0 0 0 17 162 3083 844 86
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 237 1069 270

Date: 2017-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94268 5521 74 132 3 0 0 0
OW 0 192 50 264 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 416 128 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 1151 264 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 481 4064 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 585 1005 277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94268 5342 65 141 11 0 0 0
OW 0 329 33 283 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 33 353 463 18 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 98 993 926 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 281 3211 125 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 760 978 259

Date: 2017-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94896 4606 59 320 18 0 0 0
OW 0 91 37 290 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 332 291 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 1346 102 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 813 3365 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1056 1030 218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94895 4496 62 324 35 0 0 0
OW 1 171 30 316 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 8 280 657 39 2 0
ODI 0 1 2 54 1401 756 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 318 2624 104 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1106 1000 207


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