Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14080 7797 91 486 38 0 0 0
OW 0 280 46 760 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 16 1055 859 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 187 1995 722 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1947 4464 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 142 2277 5969 2163
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14432 7882 79 546 43 5 0 0
OW 0 724 94 841 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 152 33 908 464 16 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 629 1795 510 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 226 2198 3728 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 115 3393 6390 362
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16067 7800 124 546 34 0 0 0
OW 0 206 73 675 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 11 977 483 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 294 2748 299 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1253 5249 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 44 1370 4143 3229
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14689 9808 99 352 23 0 0 0
OW 0 533 40 448 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 43 717 465 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 530 2560 214 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 2414 3884 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 53 3589 4920 126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14689 9881 114 419 25 0 0 0
OW 0 335 23 396 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 298 35 624 523 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 12 527 2593 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 2243 3801 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 101 3621 4911 126

Date: 2017-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17606 6996 82 307 15 0 0 0
OW 1 675 27 457 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 309 42 660 464 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 13 527 2720 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 273 2420 3184 101 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 2932 4562 1201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17606 7096 83 406 26 0 0 0
OW 1 488 24 340 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 365 40 665 651 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 17 455 2600 215 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 358 2311 2934 111 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 3114 4552 1181

Date: 2017-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16570 8151 76 182 14 0 0 0
OW 0 900 63 405 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 201 36 1267 249 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 321 3984 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 1067 5296 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 3175 3584 96
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16570 8379 88 354 33 0 0 0
OW 0 438 21 320 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 369 49 645 942 5 0 0
ODI 0 62 14 505 2313 252 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 377 1827 3670 138 13
VCDI 0 0 0 5 150 4677 3481 83

Date: 2017-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18414 6609 61 270 22 0 0 0
OW 0 1008 55 417 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 35 878 913 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 203 3485 327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1449 4594 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 15 3079 3590 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18414 6716 68 385 98 0 0 0
OW 0 414 19 293 157 1 0 0
VODI 0 450 29 448 1182 13 0 0
ODI 0 122 30 381 2240 304 2 0
CDI 0 26 5 264 2156 3355 123 8
VCDI 0 0 0 4 122 4327 3572 138

Date: 2017-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18469 6715 55 325 28 0 0 0
OW 0 1060 57 455 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 36 961 1192 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 452 2618 590 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 2014 3622 397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 2611 3941 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18469 6801 54 397 112 1 0 0
OW 0 537 17 227 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 421 40 578 1190 24 0 0
ODI 0 113 35 568 1886 427 1 0
CDI 0 21 8 464 2504 2791 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 155 3585 4072 10


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