Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90137 7657 124 682 103 0 0 0
OW 1 135 25 602 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 408 838 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 1287 565 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 430 3435 661 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 158 1489 75
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89735 8225 133 732 101 0 0 0
OW 0 142 27 589 175 1 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 446 831 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 601 1021 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 359 3192 1270 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 1123 214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90868 7532 100 633 42 0 0 0
OW 0 58 32 467 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 519 246 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 1057 312 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 522 4045 1185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 908 429
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90471 8092 109 565 40 0 0 0
OW 0 53 28 475 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 464 341 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 932 557 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 520 4580 623 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 372 705 32
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90471 8108 110 614 43 0 0 0
OW 0 36 27 427 69 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 474 348 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 852 624 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 586 4485 608 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 401 720 31

Date: 2017-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90500 8240 97 464 40 0 0 0
OW 0 87 37 407 96 1 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 472 386 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 941 623 0 9
CDI 0 0 0 0 327 4175 704 114
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 894 164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90500 8241 106 502 45 1 0 0
OW 0 86 28 363 94 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 486 359 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 931 734 0 8
CDI 0 0 0 0 361 4120 745 131
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 189 853 148

Date: 2017-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90573 8327 96 404 23 0 0 0
OW 0 77 40 346 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 523 215 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1544 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 439 3829 463 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 133 1561 284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90573 8250 93 507 46 1 0 0
OW 0 144 36 276 103 3 0 0
VODI 0 10 9 470 424 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 978 797 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 712 3183 1439 77
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 120 583 207

Date: 2017-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91679 7452 103 294 26 0 0 0
OW 0 82 32 350 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 478 263 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 1331 501 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 171 3497 870 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 1600 246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91679 7348 95 367 45 0 0 0
OW 0 162 30 305 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 12 437 482 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 824 987 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 379 3014 1864 219
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 605 27

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91706 7740 60 171 14 0 0 0
OW 0 180 45 270 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 12 489 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 12 1446 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 420 3562 339 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 137 1539 88
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91706 7570 65 252 32 0 0 0
OW 0 286 34 255 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 17 407 531 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 24 1059 755 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 511 3411 1820 99
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 58 0


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