Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-08-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11135 7933 128 538 68 0 0 0
OW 0 284 54 801 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 1399 754 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 1930 407 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1784 4673 557 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 327 3391 5305 4160
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11599 8185 91 385 59 0 0 0
OW 0 546 81 658 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 34 1489 888 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 234 1285 523 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 2269 4075 591 4
VCDI 0 0 0 11 339 3343 5440 3561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12661 8332 122 670 37 0 0 0
OW 0 152 45 757 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1559 585 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 2337 309 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1615 4650 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 199 3647 6517 1261
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12657 8904 114 585 55 0 0 0
OW 0 207 44 660 134 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 9 1330 596 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 2159 577 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1816 4442 375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 183 1825 7026 1909
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12657 8874 121 780 58 0 0 0
OW 0 249 38 691 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 7 1115 699 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 146 1951 571 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1891 4409 341 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 179 1863 7060 1909

Date: 2017-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15043 7062 88 518 43 1 0 0
OW 0 531 69 713 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 38 1269 444 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 410 1908 591 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1946 4099 539 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 110 3724 4705 1813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15043 7184 104 697 50 1 0 0
OW 0 408 62 783 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 28 1031 590 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 387 1694 666 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 1988 4082 617 3
VCDI 0 0 0 4 132 3651 4627 1811

Date: 2017-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15194 8071 124 556 33 2 0 0
OW 0 310 70 856 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 1295 305 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 221 3082 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 1112 5303 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 26 1654 3927 3326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15194 7493 114 619 37 2 0 0
OW 0 651 46 708 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 34 713 809 70 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 573 1527 510 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 318 2064 3630 549 25
VCDI 0 0 0 18 104 2869 3611 3301

Date: 2017-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15749 8538 117 415 41 0 0 0
OW 0 461 46 424 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 21 844 473 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 405 2440 430 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 1555 4979 186 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 22 1755 3919 2844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15749 7540 105 414 56 0 0 0
OW 0 889 32 328 102 0 0 0
VODI 0 408 22 415 1053 99 0 0
ODI 0 249 15 393 1234 639 0 0
CDI 0 32 10 558 1985 3609 510 71
VCDI 0 0 0 21 143 2817 3595 2773

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16766 7761 83 364 31 0 0 0
OW 0 625 26 452 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 50 706 465 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 547 2572 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 2275 3617 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 3643 4556 589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16766 6934 68 444 44 0 0 0
OW 0 652 29 277 209 0 0 0
VODI 0 442 25 404 1260 66 0 0
ODI 0 353 13 319 1289 436 0 0
CDI 0 235 30 711 1969 2584 362 25
VCDI 0 0 0 11 633 4428 4284 564


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