Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-08-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103813 25776 401 1742 189 3 0 0
OW 1 704 170 2300 419 3 0 0
VODI 0 75 29 2607 2404 16 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 258 5666 2079 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 3336 16917 2448 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 327 3758 7328 4249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104989 25853 346 1546 192 1 0 0
OW 0 1064 210 2010 439 1 0 0
VODI 0 161 53 2642 2690 67 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 423 4404 3353 152 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 3575 14558 3599 4
VCDI 0 0 0 11 339 3587 6985 3775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107220 25940 348 1694 100 0 0 0
OW 0 451 162 1878 188 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 2837 1394 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 235 7079 1377 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 3039 15733 3497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 199 3658 8275 1690
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107834 26562 305 1382 112 0 0 0
OW 1 622 144 1731 289 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 49 2547 1621 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 344 6369 2723 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 3131 15442 3171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 183 2248 8101 1941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107834 26540 314 1712 122 0 0 0
OW 1 635 134 1615 321 2 0 0
VODI 0 158 49 2326 1617 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 340 5997 2738 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 3469 15321 3079 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 179 2353 8193 1940

Date: 2017-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111650 23715 252 1199 101 1 0 0
OW 6 1043 175 1684 240 1 0 0
VODI 0 218 69 2470 1865 25 0 0
ODI 0 13 9 581 5791 3318 12 9
CDI 0 0 0 50 2791 14016 3757 115
VCDI 0 0 0 4 110 4002 5779 1977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111648 23820 288 1483 119 2 0 0
OW 8 910 138 1631 218 2 0 0
VODI 0 246 72 2230 1702 39 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 577 5631 3423 45 8
CDI 0 1 0 63 3096 14023 3731 134
VCDI 0 0 0 4 132 3874 5772 1959

Date: 2017-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112218 24895 313 1175 74 2 0 0
OW 9 640 177 1710 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 22 2641 962 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 273 9044 690 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 2027 17061 1465 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 26 1854 6028 3610
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112185 23977 291 1430 109 3 0 0
OW 42 1182 134 1429 245 3 0 0
VODI 0 363 80 1907 2373 126 0 0
ODI 0 17 7 707 5780 3865 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 329 3627 12461 3187 102
VCDI 0 0 0 18 104 3151 4243 3508

Date: 2017-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114222 24297 313 975 96 0 0 0
OW 3 717 140 1380 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 138 30 2023 1317 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 476 8560 1710 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 2878 14731 2127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 22 1818 5774 3090
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114207 22891 281 1182 157 0 0 0
OW 18 1450 115 1076 338 0 0 0
VODI 0 525 61 1547 3025 184 0 0
ODI 0 254 16 502 5725 4451 211 0
CDI 0 32 10 568 3650 10730 3478 290
VCDI 0 0 0 21 143 2898 4212 2800

Date: 2017-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114592 24360 233 836 86 0 0 0
OW 3 1041 136 1383 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 263 74 1808 1647 18 0 0
ODI 0 11 7 701 9062 1999 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 3639 12843 1328 11
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 3791 6194 677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114577 23145 233 1295 190 0 0 0
OW 16 1282 106 958 515 5 0 0
VODI 2 658 65 1364 3536 268 0 0
ODI 0 355 16 463 6256 4535 417 0
CDI 0 235 30 745 3485 9414 2774 124
VCDI 0 0 0 14 635 4429 4342 564


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