Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-07-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87318 9175 146 727 33 0 0 0
OW 16 79 17 719 212 0 0 0
VODI 5 49 11 558 828 8 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 126 1340 252 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1652 2735 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1715 1357 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86100 10629 132 762 59 0 0 0
OW 11 173 26 731 269 0 0 0
VODI 4 97 15 562 766 9 0 0
ODI 0 21 5 151 1322 276 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1270 2858 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1358 1466 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87669 9572 128 775 96 0 0 0
OW 4 62 26 616 184 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 475 666 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 1614 566 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 630 3706 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 535 1633 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89354 8316 123 670 100 0 0 0
OW 4 143 33 584 191 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 478 741 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 1267 680 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 524 3568 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 125 1742 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89357 8377 140 763 129 0 0 0
OW 1 86 20 518 174 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 5 448 784 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 1226 716 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 510 3513 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 136 1698 1

Date: 2017-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89757 8160 117 671 122 0 0 0
OW 1 151 29 583 191 3 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 380 835 41 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 88 683 1034 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 372 3629 640 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 1357 131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89758 8209 127 757 156 0 0 0
OW 0 96 19 497 183 2 0 0
VODI 0 16 7 368 889 56 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 101 618 1039 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 357 3596 736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 118 1261 131

Date: 2017-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90161 8003 142 693 73 0 0 0
OW 0 43 21 482 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 438 320 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 1198 207 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 496 4671 619 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 1250 140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90161 7942 138 776 135 0 0 0
OW 0 96 23 482 198 2 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 333 981 165 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 439 959 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 409 3708 874 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 995 140

Date: 2017-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90269 8069 127 702 68 0 0 0
OW 0 29 29 483 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 434 351 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 1029 451 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 503 4267 1089 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 368 729 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90269 7997 126 786 129 0 0 0
OW 0 95 28 462 196 7 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 374 947 229 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 276 972 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 472 3712 1369 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 176 449 0

Date: 2017-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90953 7714 101 522 42 0 0 0
OW 0 60 32 454 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 417 413 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 900 639 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 384 3678 1421 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 244 977 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90953 7626 104 664 120 1 0 0
OW 0 124 30 423 216 13 0 0
VODI 0 27 1 338 886 356 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 285 846 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 304 3337 2065 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 310 4


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