Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-07-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99606 25032 346 1550 125 1 0 0
OW 18 1079 193 2040 513 2 0 0
VODI 5 238 81 2426 2720 30 0 0
ODI 0 15 7 415 6114 1122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 5257 16005 1152 0
VCDI 0 1 0 9 610 11330 8618 363
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97989 27378 360 1635 192 4 0 0
OW 12 1312 182 2170 571 6 0 0
VODI 4 341 94 2587 2773 37 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 383 5464 1543 132 0
CDI 0 4 0 42 4517 15184 2215 0
VCDI 0 8 0 13 349 9857 9572 83
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100669 27149 425 1885 202 4 0 0
OW 4 388 165 2153 339 6 0 0
VODI 0 21 11 2573 1961 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 7337 906 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 3806 18664 1072 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 187 8500 8208 232
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102682 26352 415 1755 192 4 0 0
OW 4 565 190 2229 383 8 0 0
VODI 0 47 26 2601 2324 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 214 6165 1726 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 3573 17920 1468 6
VCDI 0 0 0 6 245 4450 10707 766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102685 26339 448 2041 243 6 0 0
OW 1 557 151 2048 413 6 0 0
VODI 0 68 32 2474 2453 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 232 5908 1717 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 3606 17813 1535 13
VCDI 0 0 0 5 259 4564 10640 759

Date: 2017-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104907 25400 360 1552 216 0 0 0
OW 1 830 189 2200 452 5 0 0
VODI 0 102 42 2306 2844 56 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 345 4441 3217 174 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 3267 16148 2700 4
VCDI 0 0 0 16 426 3524 8121 3180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104908 25473 387 1839 269 1 0 0
OW 0 733 157 2054 478 3 0 0
VODI 0 125 47 2210 2954 70 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 300 4207 3176 123 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 3286 16203 2878 6
VCDI 0 0 0 14 452 3497 7994 3178

Date: 2017-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105458 26730 426 1683 166 0 0 0
OW 0 497 176 1927 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 12 2915 1368 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 144 7569 744 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 2528 18337 1796 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 184 2181 8451 3581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105458 25887 385 1938 303 0 0 0
OW 0 1071 160 1825 473 4 0 0
VODI 0 274 69 2423 2567 221 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 430 4119 3716 182 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 4211 14672 2809 5
VCDI 0 0 0 6 289 2653 7256 3576

Date: 2017-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106712 26990 361 1579 134 1 0 0
OW 0 509 157 1856 207 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 28 2584 1565 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 472 6597 2084 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 17 3719 14595 3852 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 3631 8188 953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106712 26095 341 1826 267 1 0 0
OW 0 1096 145 1804 399 8 0 0
VODI 0 396 55 2098 2594 349 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 650 3842 4739 411 0
CDI 0 0 0 120 4997 11754 4310 0
VCDI 0 2 0 10 266 3470 7319 953

Date: 2017-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110118 24882 256 1224 93 0 0 0
OW 1 752 162 1769 230 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 43 2207 2103 25 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 365 5883 3324 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 3031 14662 3617 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 142 2583 7191 2167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110118 24118 268 1706 247 1 0 0
OW 1 1199 127 1678 452 15 0 0
VODI 0 461 65 1678 2718 639 0 0
ODI 0 38 7 442 4102 5692 500 0
CDI 0 0 2 73 3738 12142 4459 24
VCDI 0 0 0 8 225 2105 5857 2143


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