Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-07-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-24

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 756 35 136 24 0 0 0
OW 0 35 15 140 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 8 269 311 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 3343 232 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1869 13713 1520 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6251 8141 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 594 30 206 67 0 0 0
OW 0 87 8 124 201 3 0 0
VODI 0 83 11 150 875 103 0 0
ODI 0 32 9 66 2002 1252 213 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 2456 11932 1662 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6911 7786 1

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 428 21 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 0 21 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 28 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 173 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 398 596 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 190 415 692 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 412 19 75 1 0 0 0
OW 0 19 2 21 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 1 23 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 90 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 263 489 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 518 685 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 152 2327 31 134 5 0 0 0
OW 0 34 10 103 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 170 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 928 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 812 2829 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1749 406 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 152 2230 26 146 38 0 0 0
OW 0 68 9 56 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 13 191 214 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 374 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1291 2106 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2414 406 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2545 1811 27 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 10 189 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 382 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 459 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2545 1680 21 134 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 13 229 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 3 289 356 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 136 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 928 3534 42 60 0 0 0 0
OW 1 91 36 337 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 496 182 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 1050 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 427 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 929 3188 24 62 1 0 0 0
OW 0 392 40 272 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 18 513 218 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 888 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 133 393 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1575 31 96 15 0 0 0
OW 0 223 73 333 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 530 156 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 897 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 60 1018 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1389 19 104 22 0 0 0
OW 0 320 37 232 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 50 512 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 148 669 206 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 245 855 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1155 4085 48 123 8 1 0 0
OW 0 40 9 243 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 161 135 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 255 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1155 3903 21 87 15 1 0 0
OW 0 201 29 162 35 5 0 0
VODI 0 21 7 240 110 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 234 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9096 1937 17 86 2 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 71 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9096 1934 17 104 1 0 0 0
OW 0 4 1 65 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7091 2876 37 173 15 0 0 0
OW 0 91 28 297 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 324 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 492 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7091 2822 46 295 28 0 0 0
OW 0 123 14 219 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 6 246 297 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 247 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11313 1638 3 16 1 0 0 0
OW 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11276 1638 3 16 1 0 0 0
OW 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1576 2959 42 229 62 0 0 0
OW 0 2 4 173 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 129 123 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 391 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1576 2917 38 244 74 0 0 0
OW 0 43 6 143 66 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 132 150 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 319 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6811 1198 18 111 12 0 0 0
OW 0 10 6 97 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 134 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 54 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6811 1161 14 101 20 0 0 0
OW 0 47 8 84 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 152 127 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17194 2496 25 176 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 4 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 119 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 56 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17194 2493 24 196 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 5 107 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 89 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 72 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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