Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-07-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6217 9846 156 771 145 0 0 0
OW 1 238 49 667 129 10 0 0
VODI 0 70 16 799 539 90 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 214 1570 282 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 64 2202 5023 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 329 8904 5638 1888
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9145 7348 125 581 123 0 0 0
OW 2 403 57 493 220 9 0 0
VODI 1 77 17 441 785 75 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 140 1440 646 11 0
CDI 0 0 1 15 717 5758 441 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 365 9262 5957 1196
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9293 8027 173 650 99 0 0 0
OW 0 110 21 451 106 3 0 0
VODI 0 33 7 636 416 10 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 180 2434 97 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 11 911 5588 418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 329 6340 9319 194
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9822 7767 145 650 66 1 0 0
OW 0 141 39 506 129 3 0 0
VODI 0 56 6 626 664 25 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 157 2260 142 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 12 1842 4558 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 354 9064 6662 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9822 7778 146 722 77 2 0 0
OW 0 126 37 465 119 5 0 0
VODI 0 62 8 593 761 28 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 159 2170 194 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 12 1874 4611 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 314 8953 6622 0

Date: 2017-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10021 7704 145 622 74 0 0 0
OW 0 193 39 542 130 6 0 0
VODI 0 101 12 728 955 10 0 0
ODI 0 22 5 110 2013 68 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 2447 4190 41 0
VCDI 0 5 0 23 473 8636 6395 145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10021 7712 146 669 79 1 0 0
OW 0 174 37 521 123 8 0 0
VODI 0 117 12 714 1112 12 0 0
ODI 0 17 6 98 1960 79 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 9 2423 4257 50 0
VCDI 0 6 0 23 395 8553 6386 145

Date: 2017-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10589 7680 121 556 79 0 0 0
OW 0 92 35 510 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 8 899 587 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 3185 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1500 5983 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 190 6629 6839 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10589 7325 97 587 128 0 0 0
OW 0 316 46 483 238 4 0 0
VODI 0 141 21 850 1180 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 1808 252 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1915 4827 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 7614 6809 1

Date: 2017-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10587 7941 142 595 95 1 0 0
OW 0 158 46 651 71 1 0 0
VODI 0 14 9 1309 533 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 2600 270 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2712 4507 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 238 5333 7789 43
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10587 7476 114 596 111 2 0 0
OW 0 442 55 695 187 0 0 0
VODI 0 195 28 1035 834 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 325 1523 372 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 3088 3908 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 506 5829 7857 43

Date: 2017-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11135 7933 128 538 68 0 0 0
OW 0 284 54 801 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 1399 754 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 1930 407 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1784 4673 557 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 327 3391 5305 4160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11135 7389 99 599 97 0 0 0
OW 0 628 56 877 159 5 0 0
VODI 0 215 36 922 771 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 435 1214 487 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 2324 3940 385 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 371 4012 5477 4164


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