Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-07-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 473 15 38 1 0 0 0
OW 0 96 26 121 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 201 193 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 1254 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1398 13500 2324 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5067 11555 405
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 330 11 61 22 0 0 0
OW 0 193 23 120 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 8 137 362 30 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 66 790 1126 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 1596 11791 2736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 5750 11142 405

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 385 26 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 2 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 0 11 26 5 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 5 89 52 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 0 169 263 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 238 1046 674 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 360 25 46 2 2 0 0
OW 0 27 2 28 1 8 0 0
VODI 0 10 1 16 21 33 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 5 41 98 30 0
CDI 0 1 1 0 125 190 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 332 1035 666 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 156 2129 44 185 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 103 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 102 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 433 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 3200 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2811 491 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 155 1997 30 166 51 0 0 0
OW 1 90 7 62 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 6 70 94 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 105 127 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 329 2920 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3000 451 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1955 2075 35 51 0 0 0 0
OW 1 18 3 133 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 138 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 991 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1956 1990 22 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 14 111 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 2 119 309 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 53 707 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 111 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 93 3105 67 144 0 0 0 0
OW 0 227 71 365 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 817 214 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 1101 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 848 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 93 2892 58 213 5 0 0 0
OW 0 404 66 467 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 14 657 473 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 795 622 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 71 263 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1135 32 131 9 0 0 0
OW 0 159 51 215 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 15 441 227 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 1175 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 115 1197 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 172 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1119 42 191 10 0 0 0
OW 0 137 36 230 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 17 307 410 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 96 886 268 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 187 1000 282 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 554 3623 35 80 10 0 0 0
OW 1 262 33 229 43 1 0 0
VODI 0 36 18 500 197 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 530 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 103 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 554 3434 19 39 25 0 0 0
OW 1 327 32 203 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 159 33 462 188 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 119 480 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8769 2133 20 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 2 80 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 61 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 101 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8769 2129 17 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 5 74 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 91 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6603 2744 52 408 3 0 0 0
OW 0 13 12 243 36 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 299 241 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 785 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 103 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6603 2715 52 449 30 2 0 0
OW 0 30 4 280 146 3 0 0
VODI 0 12 8 201 339 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 403 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 192 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9884 2891 18 48 2 0 0 0
OW 0 10 5 65 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 22 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9884 2879 19 45 2 0 0 0
OW 0 22 4 67 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1248 3045 46 242 47 0 0 0
OW 0 12 9 120 46 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 84 139 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 329 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 338 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1248 2996 38 244 76 0 0 0
OW 0 57 12 112 64 1 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 81 207 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 200 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 314 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5319 2440 36 158 33 0 0 0
OW 0 32 12 63 40 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 82 101 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 184 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 38 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5319 2409 36 181 37 1 0 0
OW 0 62 8 69 75 7 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 53 173 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 58 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17177 2396 23 58 46 0 0 0
OW 0 4 7 74 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 170 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 81 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17177 2394 22 66 52 0 0 0
OW 0 6 8 83 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 171 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 66 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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