Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-07-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81478 12769 159 854 90 3 0 0
OW 4 46 30 635 305 17 0 0
VODI 0 7 7 329 870 91 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 887 419 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 596 2504 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2057 3908 756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81703 12734 140 993 83 4 0 0
OW 1 78 31 599 319 26 0 0
VODI 0 24 6 244 938 84 1 0
ODI 0 3 6 51 821 355 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 513 2279 660 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2478 3773 79
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83159 11508 137 975 65 4 0 0
OW 1 31 24 624 168 16 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 426 708 55 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 1301 215 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 535 2874 334 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3143 2695 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83064 11746 129 1037 58 5 0 0
OW 0 90 33 625 221 17 0 0
VODI 0 19 3 409 865 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 91 1068 320 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 481 2828 578 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2278 3057 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83061 11741 132 1081 70 16 0 0
OW 3 97 32 578 235 14 0 0
VODI 0 17 1 403 862 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 100 1034 356 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 492 2781 648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2285 2987 0

Date: 2017-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84460 10784 135 826 46 1 0 0
OW 0 157 45 675 191 4 0 0
VODI 0 32 9 521 795 22 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 132 1114 282 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 59 1005 2809 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2181 2477 164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84459 10783 139 837 75 2 0 0
OW 1 153 42 662 207 3 0 0
VODI 0 36 8 511 774 21 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 152 1081 308 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 51 1014 2616 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2349 2418 164

Date: 2017-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84577 11270 140 686 24 0 0 0
OW 0 64 39 621 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 4 548 624 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 1687 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 805 3797 253 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1933 1598 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84577 11128 129 738 81 2 0 0
OW 0 150 35 628 281 3 0 0
VODI 0 47 13 417 862 42 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 152 953 329 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 1053 3396 294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2135 1557 1

Date: 2017-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85373 10764 136 832 55 1 0 0
OW 0 58 26 549 235 2 0 0
VODI 0 17 8 479 867 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 161 1352 197 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1235 3210 190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2167 1154 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85373 10622 112 795 176 2 0 0
OW 0 146 41 582 368 1 0 0
VODI 0 42 10 422 803 23 0 0
ODI 0 29 10 156 910 237 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1499 3197 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2123 1157 0

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87318 9175 146 727 33 0 0 0
OW 16 79 17 719 212 0 0 0
VODI 5 49 11 558 828 8 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 126 1340 252 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1652 2735 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1715 1357 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87317 9078 127 894 114 0 0 0
OW 20 122 29 619 249 0 0 0
VODI 2 64 9 410 749 42 0 0
ODI 0 45 12 177 906 197 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 2047 2831 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1640 1358 0


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