Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-07-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5781 8759 134 632 131 0 0 0
OW 4 289 39 583 265 12 0 0
VODI 0 215 21 617 883 53 0 0
ODI 0 110 16 317 1122 284 0 0
CDI 0 85 12 213 4153 2324 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2745 13975 1817 107
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5920 8779 148 749 200 0 0 0
OW 2 238 35 710 376 3 0 0
VODI 0 161 11 573 960 129 0 0
ODI 0 151 16 227 685 418 0 0
CDI 0 78 9 152 1461 5967 46 0
VCDI 0 3 0 6 474 14737 2399 43
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6294 9107 181 785 196 0 0 0
OW 2 103 24 621 228 4 0 0
VODI 0 85 13 647 627 42 0 0
ODI 0 44 5 169 1236 639 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 28 776 6658 879 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 93 10193 5991 193
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6810 9147 138 639 159 0 0 0
OW 1 244 51 608 156 17 0 0
VODI 0 82 24 785 549 71 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 134 1473 335 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 17 1387 6294 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 280 9172 5999 1250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6810 9120 146 729 165 2 0 0
OW 1 283 49 604 116 9 0 0
VODI 0 70 17 653 587 77 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 177 1517 286 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 1315 6462 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 304 9053 6004 1250

Date: 2017-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7390 8871 148 721 119 0 0 0
OW 1 259 66 635 146 11 0 0
VODI 0 47 15 737 584 97 3 0
ODI 0 1 2 215 1556 336 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1688 5339 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 324 8201 5474 2743
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7390 8896 166 837 121 4 0 0
OW 1 240 45 599 130 13 1 0
VODI 0 41 18 648 593 84 6 0
ODI 0 1 2 213 1536 537 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 1676 5344 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 361 8002 5475 2743

Date: 2017-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8002 9094 195 643 111 0 0 0
OW 1 59 27 428 114 2 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 530 460 11 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 94 2473 164 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 0 355 6528 432 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 238 6285 9325 277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8002 8761 149 626 170 3 0 0
OW 1 313 52 425 198 16 0 0
VODI 0 81 20 407 822 94 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 177 1484 719 30 0
CDI 0 1 1 60 745 5494 450 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 332 6664 9277 277

Date: 2017-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10057 7491 132 651 44 1 0 0
OW 0 127 27 492 110 2 0 0
VODI 0 43 11 670 536 18 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 178 2337 119 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 10 1663 4158 766 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 382 8290 7538 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10057 7189 97 656 122 1 0 0
OW 0 284 52 440 203 16 0 0
VODI 0 132 14 457 801 84 0 0
ODI 0 62 9 345 1542 620 30 0
CDI 0 1 1 103 1803 3588 752 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 601 8279 7522 2

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10369 7368 118 572 59 1 0 0
OW 0 189 49 444 158 2 0 0
VODI 0 64 9 648 815 16 0 0
ODI 0 9 4 150 2205 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 2246 4410 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 9 610 8499 6396 363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10369 7042 108 649 178 1 0 0
OW 0 351 44 271 337 11 0 0
VODI 0 153 17 532 810 40 0 0
ODI 0 82 8 286 1632 644 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 87 2282 3996 35 0
VCDI 0 1 0 11 854 8306 6361 363


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