Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-07-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87434 27076 443 2141 278 4 0 0
OW 8 665 169 2304 820 40 0 0
VODI 0 246 40 2100 3316 266 0 0
ODI 0 110 16 518 4385 1561 3 0
CDI 0 85 13 291 5611 11204 2985 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2750 19315 9925 925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87758 27493 437 2314 331 5 0 0
OW 3 746 170 2525 992 57 0 0
VODI 0 226 32 1920 3670 350 1 0
ODI 0 160 30 462 3456 2097 21 0
CDI 0 78 9 240 2697 14613 4037 0
VCDI 0 3 0 6 474 20007 9443 185
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89974 27234 459 2216 326 4 0 0
OW 3 481 170 2356 507 28 0 0
VODI 0 211 53 2559 2387 137 1 0
ODI 1 44 6 380 5407 1336 3 0
CDI 0 1 1 39 2007 16374 3319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 96 17003 11731 193
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90610 28089 377 2061 247 5 0 0
OW 1 1056 234 2124 480 42 0 0
VODI 0 264 73 2694 2515 154 0 0
ODI 1 8 5 377 5215 1345 6 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 2393 16676 2554 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 280 13792 12077 1250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90607 28044 403 2277 277 18 0 0
OW 4 1077 208 1943 451 30 0 0
VODI 1 288 72 2582 2506 160 0 0
ODI 0 8 7 451 5153 1285 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 2439 17116 2582 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 304 13405 12049 1250

Date: 2017-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92842 27082 384 1860 210 1 0 0
OW 2 1248 245 2134 516 17 0 0
VODI 1 225 84 2712 2694 164 3 0
ODI 0 8 3 514 5250 1664 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 102 3150 15504 3489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 355 11981 9688 2907
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92841 27088 420 2100 268 6 0 0
OW 3 1191 203 1971 510 16 1 0
VODI 1 275 90 2586 2612 147 6 0
ODI 0 9 3 560 5164 1845 11 0
CDI 0 0 1 105 3252 15457 3127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 369 11860 10043 2907

Date: 2017-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93618 28574 449 1647 154 0 0 0
OW 2 844 233 1844 280 4 0 0
VODI 0 56 42 2799 1798 32 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 298 7147 512 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 3 1953 19708 2573 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 238 8935 12892 405
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93618 27644 391 1798 312 5 0 0
OW 2 1439 221 1906 656 19 0 0
VODI 0 366 98 2215 2852 187 0 0
ODI 0 30 15 548 4644 2597 60 0
CDI 0 1 1 124 2761 16598 3143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 345 9785 12262 405

Date: 2017-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96992 26548 354 1779 142 2 0 0
OW 1 863 208 1930 431 5 0 0
VODI 1 110 59 2698 2300 25 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 463 6293 698 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 21 3916 17072 2320 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 394 11023 10384 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96992 25591 302 1879 385 3 0 0
OW 2 1396 203 1826 768 17 0 0
VODI 0 449 101 2247 2795 162 0 0
ODI 0 91 20 759 4613 2578 169 0
CDI 0 1 1 180 4298 14934 2402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 617 11131 10133 2

Date: 2017-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99606 25032 346 1550 125 1 0 0
OW 18 1079 193 2040 513 2 0 0
VODI 5 238 81 2426 2720 30 0 0
ODI 0 15 7 415 6114 1122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 5257 16005 1152 0
VCDI 0 1 0 9 610 11330 8618 363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99607 23968 322 1998 397 1 0 0
OW 20 1637 170 1510 901 11 0 0
VODI 2 628 108 2134 2913 240 0 0
ODI 0 129 24 682 4490 3551 156 0
CDI 0 2 3 130 5784 13540 1118 0
VCDI 0 1 0 11 854 11147 8496 363


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