Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-07-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 160 7 22 2 0 0 0
OW 0 47 14 69 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 11 128 67 1 1 0
ODI 0 18 1 54 382 90 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 481 8443 2078 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 14307 10183 303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 117 3 21 4 0 0 0
OW 0 47 8 65 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 11 71 97 16 3 0
ODI 0 33 7 41 199 133 29 0
CDI 0 11 4 77 628 7971 3252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 14721 8979 303

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 26 299 13 24 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 14 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 78 34 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 71 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 271 620 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 120 1100 306 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 26 282 11 20 9 2 0 0
OW 0 12 2 2 19 10 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 37 2 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 39 71 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 138 518 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 304 1138 308 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 234 1779 39 162 37 0 0 0
OW 0 43 7 115 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 6 225 114 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 4 120 300 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 630 3048 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2808 182 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 234 1566 33 148 54 0 0 0
OW 0 89 5 75 89 2 0 0
VODI 0 94 4 166 96 38 0 0
ODI 0 67 6 121 132 119 0 0
CDI 0 48 8 114 761 2567 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3164 182 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1535 1764 37 138 3 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 207 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 140 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 719 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 263 575 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1535 1764 37 234 53 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 175 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 53 297 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 260 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 429 497 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1848 64 239 0 0 0 0
OW 0 54 20 560 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 710 515 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1462 188 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 68 1207 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1792 59 323 5 0 0 0
OW 0 101 26 671 155 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 486 1012 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 755 528 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 140 854 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 881 24 169 20 0 0 0
OW 0 92 34 267 40 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 287 210 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 737 195 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 226 1050 413 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 573 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 803 22 202 29 0 0 0
OW 0 114 24 164 72 15 0 0
VODI 0 60 14 264 228 106 4 0
ODI 0 6 3 123 560 507 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 344 678 950 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122 2982 51 128 11 0 0 0
OW 0 153 34 317 45 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 455 351 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 1029 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 427 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122 2875 45 196 28 0 0 0
OW 0 195 33 351 88 3 0 0
VODI 0 65 9 328 647 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 46 647 298 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 214 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8374 2379 20 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 6 69 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 85 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 192 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 81 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8374 2355 11 34 4 0 0 0
OW 0 27 13 53 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 54 167 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 107 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6350 2506 33 459 16 1 0 0
OW 0 0 1 282 53 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 263 262 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 810 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 212 312 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6350 2502 29 655 77 5 0 0
OW 0 0 1 226 141 18 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 102 363 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 36 404 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 368 290 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9420 3142 27 159 12 0 0 0
OW 0 5 7 65 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 45 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9420 3142 30 166 13 0 0 0
OW 0 5 4 79 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 141 3738 66 384 83 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 102 98 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 30 170 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 207 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 574 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 9 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 141 3728 66 402 131 0 0 0
OW 0 14 0 68 125 12 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 35 166 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 118 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 515 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 11 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3002 4169 73 300 57 0 0 0
OW 0 79 10 183 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 1 116 94 11 0 0
ODI 0 34 2 12 163 44 0 0
CDI 0 15 5 18 30 77 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3002 4063 63 275 81 0 0 0
OW 0 97 11 198 48 2 0 0
VODI 0 74 6 123 166 66 0 0
ODI 0 65 5 8 50 44 0 0
CDI 0 41 6 25 48 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17865 1717 12 45 24 0 0 0
OW 0 15 19 44 16 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 82 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 135 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 150 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17865 1713 17 66 55 2 0 0
OW 0 19 12 35 38 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 21 126 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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