Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-07-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5910 5052 1994 58 0 0 0
OW 0 61 131 786 172 1 0 0
VODI 0 27 47 571 683 34 2 0
ODI 0 14 35 340 1293 389 6 0
CDI 0 4 62 439 1691 3612 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 596 8141 6581 6920
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8011 4340 1238 89 0 0 0
OW 0 83 163 738 217 13 0 0
VODI 0 30 55 608 729 78 0 0
ODI 0 18 38 289 1279 448 0 0
CDI 0 22 81 455 2172 2961 269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 815 12887 6139 1594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5451 8547 122 572 103 0 0 0
OW 3 182 42 557 137 17 0 0
VODI 0 114 17 647 680 43 0 0
ODI 0 97 12 228 1622 362 0 0
CDI 0 98 14 112 1800 4497 186 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 205 15929 2847 621
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5681 8628 129 638 134 1 0 0
OW 2 204 48 589 196 23 0 0
VODI 2 154 21 731 766 57 0 0
ODI 0 93 22 287 1283 358 0 0
CDI 0 94 10 125 2801 3946 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 366 16040 1962 387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5681 8623 139 728 144 3 0 0
OW 4 207 40 536 185 27 0 0
VODI 0 153 20 673 758 56 0 0
ODI 0 81 16 298 1266 341 0 0
CDI 0 105 15 135 2864 4097 49 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 329 15901 2001 387

Date: 2017-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5878 8729 150 706 177 0 0 0
OW 4 263 41 646 344 8 0 0
VODI 0 164 11 638 964 95 0 0
ODI 0 130 19 243 912 309 1 0
CDI 0 75 12 216 3999 2827 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2005 15119 1037 46
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5880 8751 151 812 204 0 0 0
OW 2 237 35 523 314 11 0 0
VODI 0 174 19 644 868 111 0 0
ODI 0 106 16 268 986 300 3 0
CDI 0 93 12 202 4090 2931 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1939 15005 1087 46

Date: 2017-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5248 9849 201 851 171 0 0 0
OW 2 122 17 589 204 2 0 0
VODI 0 73 7 709 534 22 0 0
ODI 0 46 6 161 1755 226 0 0
CDI 0 15 5 32 1311 6909 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 120 12401 3765 225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5248 9513 180 915 284 2 0 0
OW 2 198 21 594 366 15 0 0
VODI 0 173 10 450 861 166 0 0
ODI 0 132 11 221 765 412 1 0
CDI 0 89 14 162 1515 5701 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 304 13264 3770 225

Date: 2017-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6267 9341 157 773 183 0 0 0
OW 1 164 39 606 204 9 0 0
VODI 0 82 12 643 690 41 0 0
ODI 0 27 6 111 1392 462 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 21 858 6668 458 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 181 10045 6012 409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6267 8983 156 945 258 7 0 0
OW 1 246 25 462 362 43 0 0
VODI 0 189 13 435 753 197 3 0
ODI 0 136 12 180 639 399 1 0
CDI 0 60 9 133 1161 5749 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 335 10830 6019 409

Date: 2017-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6217 9846 156 771 145 0 0 0
OW 1 238 49 667 129 10 0 0
VODI 0 70 16 799 539 90 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 214 1570 282 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 64 2202 5023 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 329 8904 5638 1888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6217 9351 157 1003 209 12 0 0
OW 1 310 18 494 327 56 0 0
VODI 0 257 22 478 567 165 2 0
ODI 0 166 15 221 935 418 0 0
CDI 0 74 12 318 2343 4170 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 533 9488 5638 1888


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