Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-07-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66255 29447 10540 4696 313 41 0 0
OW 7 75 361 2630 628 71 0 0
VODI 0 33 66 2336 2611 339 2 0
ODI 0 21 37 974 4985 1553 41 0
CDI 0 7 63 603 3412 11357 3294 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 621 11000 17394 11234
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65790 33378 9150 3738 388 23 0 0
OW 6 109 584 2691 697 135 3 0
VODI 0 32 143 2622 2606 568 10 0
ODI 0 18 43 1035 4550 1720 50 0
CDI 0 22 81 616 4127 9977 3875 0
VCDI 0 0 1 7 905 17501 16249 3598
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86469 26649 423 1674 321 0 1 0
OW 9 502 189 2042 533 56 4 0
VODI 0 180 35 2150 2791 177 35 0
ODI 0 107 12 436 5421 1605 66 0
CDI 0 98 14 148 3021 13714 1604 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 208 22542 12845 965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88283 25737 443 1990 272 3 0 0
OW 6 588 180 2291 639 52 0 0
VODI 2 197 51 2287 3053 223 0 0
ODI 0 93 23 496 4813 1608 0 0
CDI 1 94 10 199 4301 13192 2094 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 367 21139 11370 951
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88283 25710 470 2220 330 12 0 0
OW 8 579 147 2027 617 58 0 0
VODI 0 230 58 2251 2984 200 0 0
ODI 0 81 17 544 4717 1615 0 0
CDI 1 105 15 221 4453 13452 2146 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 344 20880 11318 951

Date: 2017-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86953 27938 456 2221 314 5 0 0
OW 6 665 174 2430 924 53 0 0
VODI 0 197 27 1968 3618 328 0 0
ODI 0 130 20 465 4023 1680 10 0
CDI 0 75 12 280 5309 11353 3847 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2008 20499 8309 750
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86955 27958 468 2547 427 5 0 0
OW 4 625 148 2012 884 50 0 0
VODI 0 221 44 2036 3318 319 1 0
ODI 0 108 17 484 4068 1710 17 0
CDI 0 93 12 284 5549 11642 3736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1950 20192 8412 750

Date: 2017-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88927 27364 466 2259 266 1 0 0
OW 4 499 153 2290 467 14 0 0
VODI 0 107 28 2552 2188 119 1 0
ODI 0 64 7 309 6232 976 3 0
CDI 0 15 5 36 2291 16564 2913 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 120 18251 11253 303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88928 26702 426 2742 543 9 0 0
OW 3 720 139 2162 990 64 0 0
VODI 0 356 51 1764 3424 443 7 0
ODI 0 171 25 520 3314 2177 30 0
CDI 0 100 18 258 2988 14193 4619 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 305 19039 9514 303

Date: 2017-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89228 28551 422 2306 306 5 0 0
OW 2 744 206 2270 509 39 0 0
VODI 0 240 46 2366 2786 134 1 0
ODI 1 27 8 279 5293 1356 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 2044 16667 2790 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 206 14919 12843 409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89229 27876 415 2787 551 19 0 0
OW 1 1060 176 1889 991 94 1 0
VODI 0 347 56 1895 3512 504 10 0
ODI 1 206 24 444 3018 2028 39 0
CDI 0 73 12 242 2737 14652 4282 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 335 15823 11309 409

Date: 2017-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91152 28067 396 2039 230 4 0 0
OW 2 1192 234 2162 443 20 0 0
VODI 0 280 73 2875 2451 146 0 0
ODI 1 7 5 486 5256 1455 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 98 3152 15657 2503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 329 12539 11891 1901
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91152 27419 416 2777 481 22 0 0
OW 2 1196 158 1874 1109 76 0 0
VODI 1 606 85 2027 3076 435 2 0
ODI 0 239 34 551 3200 2352 37 0
CDI 0 87 15 430 3459 13637 3226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 536 13299 11130 1901


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