Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-06-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 88 13 21 4 0 0 0
OW 0 29 5 46 5 1 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 65 57 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 49 139 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 501 3626 1046 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 393 13525 15831 1400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 43 8 11 1 0 0 0
OW 0 28 4 20 7 1 0 0
VODI 0 41 3 37 59 2 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 59 105 40 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 501 2851 2648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 426 14276 14228 1400

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 51 267 8 9 1 0 0 0
OW 4 6 1 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 16 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 2 25 42 7 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 15 594 220 0 0
VCDI 0 9 0 10 316 890 597 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 248 4 4 1 0 0 0
OW 24 8 3 7 4 0 0 0
VODI 13 13 2 18 9 2 0 0
ODI 0 9 4 7 23 9 0 0
CDI 0 19 1 23 396 208 0 0
VCDI 0 12 0 22 527 898 597 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 195 1700 33 107 7 0 0 0
OW 0 38 5 108 20 0 0 0
VODI 2 34 2 128 100 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 6 62 492 0 0 0
CDI 0 50 10 68 1428 1348 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3995 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 195 1550 20 96 10 0 0 0
OW 0 83 15 86 28 0 0 0
VODI 2 64 2 110 107 0 0 0
ODI 0 67 4 85 260 0 0 0
CDI 0 102 15 96 1642 945 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4398 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1401 1634 16 25 0 0 0 0
OW 3 52 20 128 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 135 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 412 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 1388 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1401 1536 3 18 0 0 0 0
OW 3 107 20 81 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 12 124 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 83 360 104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 1203 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 203 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1350 34 89 2 0 0 0
OW 0 122 34 297 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 15 642 483 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 1900 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 278 1670 20 0
VCDI 1 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1264 22 96 23 0 0 0
OW 0 183 37 237 56 1 0 0
VODI 0 75 21 537 398 23 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 194 1358 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 879 1519 20 0
VCDI 1 0 0 0 0 219 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 572 27 108 90 0 0 0
OW 0 149 33 130 89 15 0 0
VODI 0 5 8 342 106 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 545 219 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 175 1471 261 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 160 669 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 253 17 121 141 26 0 0
OW 0 197 8 55 62 68 0 0
VODI 0 257 31 164 81 227 29 0
ODI 0 19 12 248 321 237 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 400 1348 853 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 13 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2287 65 191 9 0 0 0
OW 0 108 46 332 28 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 413 396 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 1028 257 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 63 938 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2229 64 242 32 1 0 0
OW 0 149 38 276 75 18 0 0
VODI 0 17 9 421 600 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 728 450 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 89 662 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7616 3041 23 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 10 82 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 25 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 156 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 171 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7616 2985 21 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 7 69 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 22 130 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 16 87 152 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 18 52 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6400 2563 29 218 8 0 0 0
OW 0 17 8 214 44 4 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 170 303 20 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 612 114 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 162 558 119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 89 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6400 2545 28 284 41 0 0 0
OW 0 33 8 186 147 30 9 0
VODI 0 2 1 126 420 91 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 388 259 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 133 317 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9253 2945 41 260 77 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 113 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 102 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 94 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9253 2944 41 290 95 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 95 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 109 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 3328 57 248 38 0 0 0
OW 0 26 24 193 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 158 255 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 344 130 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 726 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 3154 53 218 50 0 0 0
OW 0 128 12 105 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 67 12 153 154 34 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 123 259 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 164 725 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3384 2900 41 203 24 0 0 0
OW 0 66 11 270 56 4 0 0
VODI 0 33 1 235 269 35 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 138 448 107 0 0
CDI 0 65 6 32 30 149 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 21 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3384 2776 24 158 35 5 0 0
OW 0 130 18 233 88 25 0 0
VODI 0 57 9 205 301 62 0 0
ODI 0 30 3 122 277 141 0 0
CDI 0 97 11 147 117 53 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 13 33 30 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17223 2183 34 66 31 0 0 0
OW 0 13 11 82 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 69 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 120 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 214 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17223 2178 42 122 52 8 0 0
OW 0 18 3 63 55 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 121 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 185 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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