Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-06-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3762 3106 3242 180 0 0 0
OW 0 20 99 1301 263 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 44 1055 724 7 0 0
ODI 0 5 30 308 1101 173 6 0
CDI 0 0 52 401 1224 2165 771 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 1731 3194 5406 15467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3696 4209 2906 165 0 0 0
OW 0 24 265 1151 163 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 68 909 594 24 1 0
ODI 0 9 44 207 1073 306 38 0
CDI 0 1 73 451 2073 2144 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3886 5807 7549 7682
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3245 5796 2755 180 0 0 0
OW 0 21 81 903 107 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 49 787 571 6 2 0
ODI 0 5 48 201 1617 155 30 0
CDI 0 0 30 346 1331 3755 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 763 6615 8274 7775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5718 4393 2470 78 4 0 0
OW 0 55 102 812 165 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 53 585 690 16 9 0
ODI 0 2 42 297 1253 348 23 0
CDI 0 0 47 380 1764 3485 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 716 5409 8061 8474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5719 4368 2499 80 4 0 0
OW 0 52 113 783 140 1 0 0
VODI 0 14 71 589 652 16 9 0
ODI 0 1 41 313 1259 340 15 0
CDI 0 0 44 360 1814 3519 424 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 721 5383 8048 8474

Date: 2017-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7310 4427 1560 66 0 0 0
OW 0 66 173 763 159 9 1 0
VODI 0 29 52 615 669 54 5 0
ODI 0 17 40 329 1223 491 6 0
CDI 0 13 73 470 1667 3388 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 465 9899 9688 1782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7295 4441 1546 63 0 0 0
OW 0 73 142 741 142 13 2 0
VODI 0 41 74 626 625 42 6 0
ODI 0 15 42 367 1173 390 4 0
CDI 0 11 66 456 1743 3509 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 503 9887 9674 1782

Date: 2017-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5086 8591 146 588 83 0 0 0
OW 7 170 40 577 122 4 0 0
VODI 2 73 8 606 621 38 0 0
ODI 0 89 15 250 1900 252 0 0
CDI 0 119 16 115 2125 3796 303 0
VCDI 0 9 0 10 732 13599 5151 623
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5053 8190 101 499 98 5 0 0
OW 27 346 57 491 184 25 0 0
VODI 15 172 25 535 680 82 0 0
ODI 0 111 14 320 1239 315 0 0
CDI 0 218 27 266 2430 2994 289 0
VCDI 0 14 1 35 952 14268 5165 623

Date: 2017-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5163 8910 146 672 114 0 0 0
OW 3 196 46 603 133 19 0 0
VODI 0 137 19 717 717 50 0 0
ODI 0 112 19 256 1480 336 0 0
CDI 0 96 11 94 1648 4605 340 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 425 15066 3335 398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5156 8385 104 593 125 8 0 0
OW 10 367 48 496 158 28 0 0
VODI 0 313 46 604 614 109 0 0
ODI 0 191 17 411 1197 207 1 0
CDI 0 195 26 238 1960 3794 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 463 15930 3408 398

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5781 8759 134 632 131 0 0 0
OW 4 289 39 583 265 12 0 0
VODI 0 215 21 617 883 53 0 0
ODI 0 110 16 317 1122 284 0 0
CDI 0 85 12 213 4153 2324 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2745 13975 1817 107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5781 8041 111 650 166 16 0 0
OW 4 488 30 355 313 26 0 0
VODI 0 445 33 441 674 149 0 0
ODI 0 284 25 498 901 169 5 0
CDI 0 200 23 411 4218 2083 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 3027 14205 1827 107


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