Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-06-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65491 25115 10323 5377 410 10 3 0
OW 12 53 232 2781 571 16 1 0
VODI 0 23 109 2193 2345 202 7 0
ODI 0 10 64 941 3856 1450 53 0
CDI 0 6 61 723 4601 8346 3860 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 2042 7351 17315 21079
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63267 25363 12003 6691 396 13 0 0
OW 11 40 418 2653 616 20 0 0
VODI 0 20 154 2021 2516 316 12 0
ODI 0 15 77 860 3858 1802 86 0
CDI 0 10 79 854 5301 8685 3243 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 4161 10647 19526 11309
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65216 28180 10749 5070 385 3 0 0
OW 9 31 201 2597 383 3 0 0
VODI 0 19 67 2361 2249 65 2 0
ODI 0 15 58 775 6059 1108 46 0
CDI 0 3 33 470 3327 11620 1496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1056 11359 20961 11068
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67991 27813 9611 5044 298 50 0 0
OW 8 61 315 2546 559 84 0 0
VODI 0 16 67 2362 2467 278 19 0
ODI 0 7 43 940 5118 1252 152 0
CDI 0 6 48 543 3690 10620 2952 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 780 9478 19244 12585
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67991 27804 9587 5220 347 61 0 0
OW 8 68 316 2396 548 78 0 0
VODI 0 20 94 2234 2336 299 29 0
ODI 0 8 42 1056 5059 1254 154 0
CDI 0 3 45 529 3869 10895 3081 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 753 9175 19103 12585

Date: 2017-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68435 29856 9265 3944 330 16 0 0
OW 6 114 483 2715 597 93 3 0
VODI 0 31 94 2577 2562 419 12 0
ODI 0 17 46 1019 4745 1721 38 0
CDI 0 13 73 616 3524 10860 3614 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 477 12265 20562 5905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68435 29860 9350 4208 400 29 0 0
OW 6 104 380 2409 563 91 5 0
VODI 0 41 120 2498 2459 399 12 0
ODI 0 15 45 1134 4550 1648 37 0
CDI 0 11 66 621 3755 11128 3798 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 508 12079 20377 5905

Date: 2017-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87380 24858 421 1573 291 0 0 0
OW 13 629 209 2001 418 26 1 0
VODI 2 144 34 2421 2372 183 8 0
ODI 0 90 15 495 6332 1145 14 0
CDI 0 119 16 151 3333 12479 1877 0
VCDI 1 9 0 10 733 18659 17186 1400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87347 23705 347 1692 481 40 0 0
OW 33 1114 174 1513 715 154 9 0
VODI 15 642 107 1962 2643 580 43 0
ODI 0 156 39 976 4231 1731 82 0
CDI 0 218 27 473 4423 9923 4109 0
VCDI 1 14 1 35 986 20064 14843 1400

Date: 2017-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87653 25678 442 1995 327 1 0 0
OW 8 517 178 2282 524 39 0 0
VODI 0 181 39 2246 3024 177 7 0
ODI 0 116 19 447 5144 1642 2 0
CDI 1 96 11 141 2994 13916 2042 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 432 20486 13202 1039
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87646 23986 359 2193 587 10 0 0
OW 15 1204 129 1475 906 129 5 0
VODI 0 892 122 1991 2811 579 3 0
ODI 0 305 50 981 4096 1705 26 0
CDI 1 201 29 471 3527 11317 3531 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 518 22521 11688 1039

Date: 2017-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87434 27076 443 2141 278 4 0 0
OW 8 665 169 2304 820 40 0 0
VODI 0 246 40 2100 3316 266 0 0
ODI 0 110 16 518 4385 1561 3 0
CDI 0 85 13 291 5611 11204 2985 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2750 19315 9925 925
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87434 25187 362 2380 649 25 0 0
OW 8 1409 123 1447 1057 146 0 0
VODI 0 987 106 1899 2878 684 0 0
ODI 0 380 61 1039 3718 1620 7 0
CDI 0 219 29 582 5758 9024 3898 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 3100 20891 9008 925


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