Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-06-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63994 24178 8245 4818 334 18 1 0
OW 20 48 348 2573 628 20 1 0
VODI 0 1 175 1981 2516 145 8 0
ODI 0 0 135 769 3786 1393 103 0
CDI 0 0 119 1216 3485 6808 3042 0
VCDI 0 0 0 280 1126 4925 24785 25024
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58307 27195 11654 5185 366 18 0 0
OW 19 58 438 2547 854 8 0 0
VODI 0 31 229 2120 2669 413 8 0
ODI 0 17 167 653 2549 2062 111 0
CDI 0 28 157 1315 3173 7445 3276 3
VCDI 0 0 2 329 1433 6435 23311 22463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64182 24133 9751 6639 341 5 2 0
OW 17 35 206 2823 348 4 2 0
VODI 0 19 119 2349 1955 62 7 0
ODI 0 17 63 865 4308 1089 36 0
CDI 0 4 43 560 3841 9171 2466 0
VCDI 0 1 0 18 504 4798 24732 21533
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67412 23927 9294 5161 402 5 4 0
OW 15 52 242 2768 537 4 1 0
VODI 0 26 114 2256 2219 122 10 0
ODI 0 11 76 930 3838 1390 36 0
CDI 0 6 79 745 4013 8628 3834 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 980 6152 18227 23481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67412 23925 9328 5537 416 4 4 0
OW 15 56 202 2508 520 14 1 0
VODI 0 25 123 2129 2243 126 6 0
ODI 0 10 76 919 3577 1438 35 0
CDI 0 6 76 795 4339 8680 3838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 894 6039 18228 23481

Date: 2017-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65722 23744 11782 5648 368 15 1 0
OW 12 38 389 2713 566 10 1 0
VODI 0 22 154 1965 2552 249 3 0
ODI 0 9 67 869 3902 1566 69 0
CDI 0 0 64 857 5131 8550 3328 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 4716 8516 16082 17357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65722 23747 11808 5995 436 17 1 0
OW 12 38 357 2426 585 16 1 0
VODI 0 19 170 1860 2497 264 1 0
ODI 0 8 67 879 3741 1535 57 0
CDI 0 1 54 898 5358 8447 3390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 4618 8627 16034 17357

Date: 2017-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65412 27238 10478 5217 370 8 1 0
OW 9 25 202 2481 294 2 1 0
VODI 0 12 51 2309 2208 45 3 0
ODI 0 3 39 788 6681 893 20 0
CDI 0 0 27 426 4266 11052 1271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 1332 10842 21821 11164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65412 27181 10185 5459 535 14 1 0
OW 9 63 305 2152 918 29 1 0
VODI 0 17 166 1647 2738 356 7 0
ODI 0 14 92 835 3757 1863 83 0
CDI 0 3 49 1127 5327 8877 3767 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 1876 11703 19258 11164

Date: 2017-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62953 30443 11389 5177 319 26 0 0
OW 9 33 224 2599 491 50 0 0
VODI 0 17 69 2339 2392 203 7 0
ODI 0 9 47 831 5390 1190 43 0
CDI 0 5 40 473 3300 11326 1920 0
VCDI 0 1 0 2 991 10174 21094 11472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62953 30364 10898 5087 496 32 4 0
OW 9 67 451 2285 844 66 4 0
VODI 0 33 183 1858 2577 506 9 0
ODI 0 26 163 988 3835 1959 161 0
CDI 0 17 74 1202 3824 10718 3508 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 1307 9688 19378 11472

Date: 2017-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66255 29447 10540 4696 313 41 0 0
OW 7 75 361 2630 628 71 0 0
VODI 0 33 66 2336 2611 339 2 0
ODI 0 21 37 974 4985 1553 41 0
CDI 0 7 63 603 3412 11357 3294 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 621 11000 17394 11234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66255 29241 10050 4723 556 30 2 0
OW 7 159 541 1865 919 94 5 0
VODI 0 72 180 2026 2297 602 51 0
ODI 0 64 151 1367 4045 2335 393 0
CDI 0 47 145 1254 3832 10416 4618 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 921 10884 15662 11234


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