Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-06-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 9 9 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 18 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 66 53 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 62 108 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 440 674 183 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 156 2562 16479 15955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 11 15 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 14 29 44 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 48 49 56 3 0
CDI 0 0 6 118 391 509 615 27
VCDI 0 0 0 6 263 2689 16044 15928

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 135 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 49 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 32 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 32 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 36 36 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 132 528 726 1328
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 170 24 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 36 26 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 27 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 18 7 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 28 32 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 132 528 662 1328

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 310 648 459 29 0 0 0
OW 0 2 87 144 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 17 102 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 21 48 87 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 144 229 438 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 879 3466 2565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 292 578 441 40 0 0 0
OW 0 2 58 148 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 60 84 54 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 33 28 60 23 0 0
CDI 0 23 48 72 131 393 299 0
VCDI 0 6 6 124 119 904 3345 2565

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1712 541 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 67 159 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 172 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 178 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 110 327 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 1806 269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1701 472 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 86 94 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 38 175 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 79 118 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 82 163 330 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1573 269

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 12 337 152 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 64 200 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 224 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 143 404 31 13 0
CDI 0 0 2 95 875 1261 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 87 742 2028 357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3 237 161 3 0 0 0
OW 0 4 48 115 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 48 162 64 0 7 0
ODI 0 0 44 102 232 50 19 0
CDI 0 0 60 274 776 1011 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 354 973 1933 357

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 82 48 34 2 0 0 0
OW 0 51 36 72 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 66 222 82 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 37 520 333 46 0 0
CDI 0 2 9 452 634 1067 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 111 163 978 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 21 27 22 2 0 0 0
OW 0 26 7 26 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 18 75 41 18 0 0
ODI 0 35 51 160 119 70 1 0
CDI 0 12 86 657 551 717 296 0
VCDI 0 2 7 406 449 474 899 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 575 677 440 64 2 2 0
OW 0 2 10 356 34 1 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 348 219 14 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 1053 205 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 313 1359 171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 404 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 577 580 551 119 3 3 0
OW 0 0 69 199 94 17 1 0
VODI 0 0 38 262 466 158 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 129 569 535 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 411 888 552 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 8 4 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3737 4956 1164 316 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 34 212 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 12 193 107 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 138 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 41 167 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3737 4934 1116 303 4 0 0 0
OW 0 21 46 247 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 23 125 110 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 47 76 24 3 0
CDI 0 0 6 29 85 155 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2876 5178 579 273 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 170 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 170 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 489 104 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 257 1085 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 178 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2876 5178 574 315 32 0 0 0
OW 0 0 12 151 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 139 172 29 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 378 258 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 255 914 277 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6112 4260 1494 418 88 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 105 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 91 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 143 68 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 104 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6112 4260 1494 490 102 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 65 104 16 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 109 81 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 59 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 639 959 527 24 0 0 0
OW 0 1 11 381 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 174 239 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 322 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 1664 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 309 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 638 944 646 41 0 0 0
OW 0 2 26 327 117 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 109 335 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 154 424 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 1216 653 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 10 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 690 1023 1300 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 537 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 752 752 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 1256 163 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 202 248 996 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 58 96 323 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 687 1006 1336 28 0 0 0
OW 0 3 18 976 521 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 224 1003 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 470 285 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 124 158 769 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 133 182 170 267 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7531 8462 2311 643 78 6 0 0
OW 0 1 0 189 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 101 95 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 184 25 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 411 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7531 8462 2295 745 90 6 0 0
OW 0 1 16 119 81 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 60 139 27 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 106 111 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 304 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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