Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-06-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1640 1488 1643 193 9 0 0
OW 0 38 160 1094 328 31 0 0
VODI 0 3 85 926 776 94 5 0
ODI 0 0 13 442 1661 304 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 293 1891 2895 1501 6
VCDI 0 0 0 146 280 1620 12785 13480
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1273 2109 1930 273 26 0 0
OW 0 66 188 893 499 33 0 0
VODI 0 7 131 849 723 136 2 0
ODI 0 1 37 464 1872 512 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 259 774 2908 1263 4
VCDI 0 0 0 321 342 1645 12896 13384
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1804 2167 2152 222 23 0 0
OW 0 12 67 1117 249 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 1059 655 31 2 0
ODI 0 0 6 225 2123 542 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 339 615 3295 843 0
VCDI 0 0 0 109 183 2033 13377 12559
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2332 1855 2394 198 19 2 0
OW 0 18 85 1358 199 28 3 0
VODI 0 0 31 933 837 36 6 0
ODI 0 0 8 212 2838 137 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 324 1201 2016 1095 0
VCDI 0 0 0 143 227 1637 10548 15142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2333 1864 2553 245 18 2 0
OW 0 17 74 1333 209 24 4 0
VODI 0 0 30 801 1004 43 5 0
ODI 0 0 10 218 2305 161 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 335 1530 1983 1166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 124 207 1644 10479 15142

Date: 2017-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2841 1860 2682 167 6 0 0
OW 0 25 133 1237 310 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 33 1210 1554 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 178 1475 325 20 0
CDI 0 0 8 310 776 2187 1185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 218 267 1661 11401 13752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2847 1868 2975 211 7 0 0
OW 0 19 124 1100 391 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 32 1044 1382 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 201 1425 300 19 0
CDI 0 0 9 288 877 2183 1212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 227 263 1699 11375 13752

Date: 2017-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3056 2696 2781 140 6 0 0
OW 0 15 162 1087 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 24 1163 998 3 0 0
ODI 0 17 21 242 1728 227 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 351 670 2380 602 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 207 1927 12864 12352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3023 2522 2878 215 6 0 0
OW 0 28 185 1423 667 5 0 0
VODI 0 7 100 575 1254 59 0 0
ODI 0 7 50 214 772 477 12 0
CDI 0 23 50 281 529 2011 1386 0
VCDI 0 6 6 257 433 1985 12068 12352

Date: 2017-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3039 3713 2820 126 1 0 0
OW 0 19 81 1312 280 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 30 820 1013 9 0 0
ODI 0 8 24 252 1285 202 1 0
CDI 0 1 31 348 876 2105 715 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 215 3119 7975 15388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2991 3371 3034 317 1 0 0
OW 0 34 226 1208 559 3 0 0
VODI 0 12 143 507 994 42 0 0
ODI 0 13 56 304 821 358 27 0
CDI 0 27 70 248 749 2006 1237 0
VCDI 0 2 13 297 355 3026 7427 15388

Date: 2017-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3762 3106 3242 180 0 0 0
OW 0 20 99 1301 263 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 44 1055 724 7 0 0
ODI 0 5 30 308 1101 173 6 0
CDI 0 0 52 401 1224 2165 771 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 1731 3194 5406 15467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3639 2811 3682 383 0 0 0
OW 0 69 185 1017 426 9 0 0
VODI 0 49 130 765 641 85 2 0
ODI 0 13 82 293 832 393 17 0
CDI 0 29 121 283 1140 2017 1320 0
VCDI 0 0 2 283 1801 3036 4844 15467


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