Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-06-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 9 19 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 18 42 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 62 9 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 62 63 15 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 441 908 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 3933 13823 17193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0
OW 0 8 5 10 15 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 18 46 20 15 6 0
ODI 0 0 14 42 26 53 28 0
CDI 0 0 14 131 327 797 343 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 165 3994 13615 17193

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 59 7 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 42 32 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 23 46 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 31 46 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 18 45 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 172 1508 964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 102 44 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 41 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 37 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 26 9 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 18 40 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 175 1456 964

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 140 386 438 49 5 0 0
OW 0 2 46 185 15 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 227 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 127 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 266 769 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 41 524 3995 2438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 140 385 453 57 5 0 0
OW 0 0 27 87 8 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 33 177 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 93 84 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 267 647 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 111 106 648 4000 2438

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 932 990 28 4 0 0 0
OW 0 19 148 164 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 178 35 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 57 111 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 176 144 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 173 2369 24
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 893 881 48 5 0 0 0
OW 0 45 123 73 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 94 129 43 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 104 65 42 7 0
CDI 0 0 13 106 160 117 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 69 171 2137 24

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 12 168 105 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 49 131 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 127 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 54 110 194 20 7 0
CDI 0 0 9 126 429 761 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 613 3248 849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 59 71 1 0 0 0
OW 0 7 61 51 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 42 98 43 12 1 0
ODI 0 0 38 110 61 44 13 0
CDI 0 0 70 162 375 632 186 0
VCDI 0 0 32 107 216 706 3175 849

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 7 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 31 31 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 37 13 19 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 103 59 49 14 12 0
CDI 0 0 4 327 259 189 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 178 739 3110 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 1 4 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 2 18 12 4 9 0
ODI 0 7 20 30 50 21 23 0
CDI 0 4 89 96 73 92 114 0
VCDI 0 0 70 333 375 828 3030 2

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 397 491 257 28 2 1 0
OW 0 4 129 343 18 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 406 165 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 329 796 123 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 812 920 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 105 886 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 367 408 239 36 4 0 0
OW 0 34 96 192 8 2 1 0
VODI 0 0 105 261 118 20 10 0
ODI 0 0 17 294 240 109 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 361 1305 875 394 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 115 150 516 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3362 4935 931 373 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 58 402 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 224 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 59 303 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 98 174 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 209 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3362 4923 847 508 21 0 0 0
OW 0 11 68 259 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 60 139 159 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 104 171 31 1 0
CDI 0 0 10 61 105 154 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3905 4250 445 173 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 37 176 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 202 101 3 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 336 31 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 312 1065 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 163 367 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3905 4250 427 198 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 52 132 37 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 179 109 14 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 222 108 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 392 979 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 158 306 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6941 3979 756 532 83 20 0 0
OW 0 0 1 111 43 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 101 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 128 41 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 161 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6941 3979 757 593 95 22 0 0
OW 0 0 0 70 102 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 160 73 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 104 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 28 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 238 625 665 32 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 366 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 193 293 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 455 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 66 1109 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 861 602 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 238 623 762 118 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 356 205 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 107 361 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 182 377 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 610 221 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1000 497 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 189 442 878 17 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 413 79 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 576 296 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 1933 196 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 288 2162 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 167 141 447 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 189 439 1120 130 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 410 238 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 280 571 166 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 1218 587 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 434 1559 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 202 189 187 331 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7985 7537 2418 783 99 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 223 86 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 133 177 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 121 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 142 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 140 218 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7985 7537 2418 877 184 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 190 122 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 120 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 66 80 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 66 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 146 128 0


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