Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-06-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 633 866 1066 147 6 0 0
OW 0 56 121 736 383 36 0 0
VODI 0 26 108 659 679 103 7 0
ODI 0 14 63 389 1076 261 14 0
CDI 0 15 76 555 2516 3015 991 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 493 3519 15808 11382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 620 926 1254 166 17 0 0
OW 0 76 161 839 386 84 5 0
VODI 0 23 131 691 542 124 7 0
ODI 0 9 71 535 1012 292 15 0
CDI 0 2 69 600 1874 3715 1614 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 580 3504 12962 12923
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 995 1217 1639 173 5 0 0
OW 0 21 82 937 222 13 0 0
VODI 0 7 83 1010 758 52 3 0
ODI 0 0 13 482 1536 244 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 224 2266 3950 753 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 347 2396 12808 13584
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1559 1448 1432 151 7 0 0
OW 0 46 135 1084 260 37 0 0
VODI 0 9 73 1044 732 73 4 0
ODI 0 0 11 402 1614 188 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 285 3084 2528 1137 1
VCDI 0 0 0 117 281 1615 12464 14032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1559 1465 1580 199 14 0 0
OW 0 45 125 966 283 29 0 0
VODI 0 10 67 1060 793 85 4 0
ODI 0 0 10 361 1540 194 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 272 3015 2538 1218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 125 292 1588 12378 14033

Date: 2017-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 954 2194 1958 199 14 0 0
OW 0 42 174 1002 428 31 0 0
VODI 0 2 111 822 782 99 2 0
ODI 0 0 24 469 1827 416 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 269 1165 3204 1283 19
VCDI 0 0 0 254 289 1426 13712 12649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 967 2257 2162 304 15 0 0
OW 0 30 142 847 437 28 0 0
VODI 0 1 86 841 821 102 4 0
ODI 0 0 18 419 1714 420 61 0
CDI 0 0 0 248 1134 3241 1367 19
VCDI 0 0 0 257 280 1384 13611 12649

Date: 2017-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1369 2210 2031 173 12 0 0
OW 0 21 199 1092 220 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 1182 646 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 210 2442 292 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 290 782 3577 344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 295 1912 14533 11862
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1330 2097 2540 421 14 0 0
OW 0 45 158 783 453 34 0 0
VODI 0 15 127 657 892 241 2 0
ODI 0 0 51 326 1447 792 49 0
CDI 0 0 13 270 910 2668 815 0
VCDI 0 0 0 318 435 2085 14016 11862

Date: 2017-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2169 1809 2326 256 22 0 0
OW 0 22 72 1174 298 20 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 918 746 35 2 0
ODI 0 0 9 227 1974 961 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 342 944 2519 1058 0
VCDI 0 0 0 108 171 1555 12039 14046
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2051 1615 2776 620 25 0 0
OW 0 99 100 582 384 39 2 0
VODI 0 39 151 660 1289 243 3 0
ODI 0 2 54 397 924 851 65 0
CDI 0 0 12 394 908 2292 1545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 286 264 1662 11486 14046

Date: 2017-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2459 1816 2683 165 9 0 0
OW 0 24 101 1277 265 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 32 989 1369 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 277 2159 174 13 0
CDI 0 0 6 283 1244 1806 1155 0
VCDI 0 0 0 237 293 1564 10925 14485
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2320 1550 3023 591 25 0 0
OW 0 106 142 627 578 29 1 0
VODI 0 41 184 927 1514 72 2 0
ODI 0 16 59 406 987 239 69 0
CDI 0 0 31 433 1491 1802 1918 0
VCDI 0 0 0 330 334 1431 10103 14485


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