Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-06-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62595 21657 4780 3058 343 23 0 0
OW 50 118 329 1740 635 65 2 0
VODI 0 52 235 1465 1328 215 22 0
ODI 0 17 215 1236 2123 764 74 0
CDI 0 15 203 1589 4012 6270 2558 0
VCDI 0 0 35 624 2374 8594 30772 26861
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62512 19773 6814 3648 412 48 0 0
OW 50 137 389 1620 684 133 12 0
VODI 0 50 313 1488 1168 323 59 0
ODI 0 9 237 1423 2101 896 140 0
CDI 0 2 165 1539 3223 7597 3306 0
VCDI 0 0 59 577 2186 8665 33426 21864
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60375 21281 9072 4264 365 20 0 0
OW 45 31 203 2117 428 27 1 0
VODI 0 23 149 2100 1533 121 3 0
ODI 0 6 39 1015 2986 619 17 0
CDI 0 0 75 749 3935 9234 2082 0
VCDI 0 0 5 381 1121 5916 32646 24064
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59894 24593 7390 4225 367 33 1 0
OW 43 73 297 2207 494 47 0 0
VODI 0 33 133 2051 1696 206 4 0
ODI 0 8 52 946 2833 845 68 0
CDI 0 5 103 733 4925 6552 3035 35
VCDI 0 0 70 558 1090 7108 32705 21590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59894 24579 7398 4467 433 37 1 0
OW 43 89 297 1977 494 46 0 0
VODI 0 32 131 2038 1731 208 4 0
ODI 0 9 48 926 2711 883 87 0
CDI 0 3 83 747 4884 6664 3232 28
VCDI 0 0 88 565 1152 6953 32489 21597

Date: 2017-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62128 20549 9930 4553 347 28 0 0
OW 41 68 517 2271 709 39 1 0
VODI 0 17 263 1839 1728 192 18 0
ODI 0 3 101 1016 2868 1088 198 0
CDI 0 3 147 879 3076 7113 3125 38
VCDI 0 0 73 701 1127 6085 33077 21092
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62128 20553 10043 4899 460 28 0 0
OW 41 64 457 1943 722 38 1 0
VODI 0 17 236 1872 1793 193 24 0
ODI 0 3 85 979 2681 1141 212 0
CDI 0 3 119 863 3062 7197 3300 24
VCDI 0 0 91 703 1137 5948 32882 21106

Date: 2017-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63667 22973 7678 4298 335 34 1 0
OW 38 43 522 2629 384 27 0 0
VODI 0 8 117 2397 1478 50 1 0
ODI 0 0 169 854 4662 648 46 0
CDI 0 0 13 842 3201 8549 863 0
VCDI 0 0 0 137 565 7567 30782 21470
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63667 22870 7245 4973 718 40 0 0
OW 38 108 443 1844 870 53 1 0
VODI 0 35 357 1521 1799 457 52 0
ODI 0 7 156 965 2408 1566 214 0
CDI 0 4 196 1083 3497 6596 2235 0
VCDI 0 0 102 771 1333 8163 29191 21470

Date: 2017-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60116 27967 7753 4564 410 30 1 0
OW 35 68 238 2490 557 23 2 0
VODI 0 44 137 1891 1788 83 28 0
ODI 0 25 124 803 3618 1865 75 0
CDI 0 0 112 1115 3136 6971 2503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 137 786 6685 29457 21411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60116 27752 6922 5055 973 35 1 0
OW 35 189 446 1429 839 75 3 0
VODI 0 72 451 1392 2136 579 70 0
ODI 0 26 219 983 1758 1784 318 0
CDI 0 59 258 1419 3272 6308 4370 0
VCDI 0 6 68 722 1317 6876 27304 21411

Date: 2017-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63994 24178 8245 4818 334 18 1 0
OW 20 48 348 2573 628 20 1 0
VODI 0 1 175 1981 2516 145 8 0
ODI 0 0 135 769 3786 1393 103 0
CDI 0 0 119 1216 3485 6808 3042 0
VCDI 0 0 0 280 1126 4925 24785 25024
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63994 23957 7382 5194 960 33 1 0
OW 20 185 507 1353 1059 101 2 0
VODI 0 62 472 1779 2329 475 87 0
ODI 0 22 259 1008 2014 1319 338 0
CDI 0 1 353 1627 3808 6364 4625 11
VCDI 0 0 49 676 1705 5017 22887 25013


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