Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-06-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 532 656 325 60 9 0 0
OW 0 89 141 233 94 21 0 0
VODI 0 39 116 346 294 87 4 0
ODI 0 9 103 465 564 213 11 0
CDI 0 6 118 635 1628 1994 675 8
VCDI 0 0 42 219 834 7888 14879 12529
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 527 584 353 75 9 0 0
OW 0 114 174 297 150 21 0 0
VODI 0 35 154 415 512 70 1 0
ODI 0 11 108 562 669 155 10 0
CDI 0 4 108 750 1876 2230 734 0
VCDI 0 0 35 155 941 8353 15449 10225
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 736 842 715 73 5 0 0
OW 0 14 121 663 175 15 0 0
VODI 0 9 82 715 623 35 0 0
ODI 0 12 83 354 1125 175 0 0
CDI 0 0 47 490 2654 2971 546 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 1001 5134 15240 11193
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 709 874 952 131 8 0 0
OW 0 44 133 630 344 17 0 0
VODI 0 15 104 646 770 52 4 0
ODI 0 13 59 432 1036 247 5 0
CDI 0 6 73 495 2440 2822 1090 9
VCDI 0 0 0 1 452 4347 15654 11252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 715 890 997 170 10 0 0
OW 0 40 110 583 318 11 0 0
VODI 0 14 105 627 799 57 4 0
ODI 0 16 65 455 1068 277 2 0
CDI 0 2 73 491 2309 2688 1155 13
VCDI 0 0 0 3 509 4450 15592 11248

Date: 2017-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 705 820 1101 152 8 0 0
OW 0 81 129 823 381 58 3 0
VODI 0 32 114 684 606 100 7 0
ODI 0 15 62 528 970 310 16 0
CDI 0 12 78 581 2170 3588 1090 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 501 3937 15415 10740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 727 839 1236 179 22 0 0
OW 0 56 104 698 343 41 0 0
VODI 0 36 108 672 691 82 11 0
ODI 0 19 79 516 1011 373 23 0
CDI 0 7 73 590 2056 3437 1115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 500 4046 15382 10740

Date: 2017-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 969 1230 1281 121 9 0 0
OW 0 24 120 832 185 15 0 0
VODI 0 8 79 1119 666 65 12 0
ODI 0 2 19 460 1649 256 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 222 1492 4574 562 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 403 3200 14275 11990
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 844 1008 1326 207 34 0 0
OW 0 81 105 732 318 56 7 0
VODI 0 48 149 692 558 80 25 0
ODI 0 26 108 503 983 357 21 0
CDI 0 4 78 627 1914 4254 1880 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 536 3338 12930 11990

Date: 2017-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1200 1428 1480 158 5 0 0
OW 0 27 83 1060 244 26 0 0
VODI 0 6 82 1022 764 63 3 0
ODI 0 0 13 423 1652 177 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 276 3586 2443 880 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 354 1895 12397 14080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1029 1187 1436 330 39 0 0
OW 0 101 145 711 295 40 0 0
VODI 0 72 122 862 529 63 3 0
ODI 0 26 79 597 1120 149 29 0
CDI 0 5 73 602 3606 2479 2271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 878 1839 10989 14080

Date: 2017-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1640 1488 1643 193 9 0 0
OW 0 38 160 1094 328 31 0 0
VODI 0 3 85 926 776 94 5 0
ODI 0 0 13 442 1661 304 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 293 1891 2895 1501 6
VCDI 0 0 0 146 280 1620 12785 13480
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1354 1351 1631 488 36 0 0
OW 0 134 137 677 306 59 1 0
VODI 0 122 97 908 534 93 4 0
ODI 0 50 86 568 961 201 66 0
CDI 0 21 75 592 2483 2765 2355 0
VCDI 0 0 0 168 357 1799 11901 13486


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