Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22171 5022 2305 578 32 0 0
OW 54 4 26 646 573 83 1 0
VODI 0 1 2 382 826 243 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 640 264 89 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 807 1780 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 341 3771 6335 4581
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59170 20897 4376 2465 631 25 0 0
OW 53 7 24 526 662 98 1 0
VODI 0 1 8 261 828 266 35 0
ODI 0 0 0 160 655 271 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 832 1980 376 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 428 4031 5204 4692
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57403 22601 5446 1884 279 17 1 0
OW 53 12 18 728 322 32 7 0
VODI 0 0 0 435 802 68 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 1051 235 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 1217 2245 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 142 3554 5413 4552
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59955 21641 4186 1791 258 26 2 0
OW 52 9 40 673 404 31 15 0
VODI 0 0 11 450 790 125 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 161 685 273 84 0
CDI 0 0 0 225 1071 2424 526 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 121 2539 5095 5409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59955 21630 4180 1857 349 28 2 0
OW 52 20 50 620 322 38 16 0
VODI 0 0 7 441 786 120 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 162 671 277 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 220 1084 2337 503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 117 2618 5124 5409

Date: 2017-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59862 21365 4635 1816 278 44 8 0
OW 50 9 42 683 440 61 24 0
VODI 0 0 16 419 697 177 71 0
ODI 0 0 1 150 551 275 102 0
CDI 0 0 0 237 1083 2935 654 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 39 2405 5487 4481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59862 21364 4631 1908 408 61 9 0
OW 50 10 52 590 317 59 26 0
VODI 0 0 11 421 731 129 53 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 500 311 108 0
CDI 0 0 0 222 1093 2947 664 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 2390 5486 4481

Date: 2017-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60264 21657 4297 1476 247 36 2 0
OW 46 9 75 832 170 31 15 0
VODI 0 2 5 672 565 53 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 283 1204 145 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1566 3010 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 2068 6022 3927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60262 21657 4291 1697 447 117 28 0
OW 48 8 61 683 279 41 35 0
VODI 0 3 20 412 606 159 90 0
ODI 0 0 5 214 471 230 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 304 1825 2267 700 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 164 2529 5445 3927

Date: 2017-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62475 20887 3182 1699 270 35 7 0
OW 43 18 131 821 164 34 14 0
VODI 0 3 21 582 648 63 22 0
ODI 0 0 14 323 1048 229 41 0
CDI 0 0 5 256 1202 2264 915 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 144 1588 6051 3891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62474 20876 3110 1916 452 97 28 0
OW 44 25 121 585 251 28 33 0
VODI 0 6 76 366 562 174 76 0
ODI 0 1 24 293 363 326 28 0
CDI 0 0 22 446 1608 1850 1119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 240 1738 5766 3891

Date: 2017-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62569 20649 3729 1860 185 17 0 0
OW 50 23 123 899 228 29 2 0
VODI 0 4 53 534 544 89 14 0
ODI 0 0 26 467 857 451 43 0
CDI 0 0 21 350 784 2480 1326 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 156 1499 5376 3637
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62568 20598 3697 2128 351 57 7 0
OW 51 41 109 500 250 39 23 0
VODI 0 36 84 466 391 164 43 0
ODI 0 1 48 411 298 430 55 0
CDI 0 0 14 535 1281 2004 1520 0
VCDI 0 0 0 96 183 1871 5113 3637


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