Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22481 5295 2510 596 33 0 0
OW 54 75 180 937 643 98 2 0
VODI 0 55 206 775 966 259 39 0
ODI 0 30 136 498 922 400 117 0
CDI 0 5 228 969 2003 2682 625 0
VCDI 0 0 12 580 2252 11548 34959 36771
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59170 21142 4655 2743 687 27 0 0
OW 53 107 248 797 729 115 2 0
VODI 0 78 238 616 975 302 66 0
ODI 0 33 163 496 919 415 101 0
CDI 0 28 244 995 1873 2932 1101 0
VCDI 0 0 59 640 2522 11977 36662 33138
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57403 23061 6257 2537 342 19 1 0
OW 53 43 230 1104 414 47 9 0
VODI 0 10 105 931 1044 101 13 0
ODI 0 0 61 573 1627 398 60 0
CDI 0 0 81 816 2942 4029 698 0
VCDI 0 0 23 287 1407 11060 38116 31146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59955 22214 5063 2253 349 28 2 0
OW 52 71 265 984 501 47 15 0
VODI 0 25 188 905 1057 182 25 0
ODI 0 5 108 756 1316 481 125 2
CDI 0 0 126 1143 2921 4402 1226 27
VCDI 0 0 50 434 2609 12487 37439 27210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59955 22216 5070 2348 451 32 2 0
OW 52 76 259 913 427 53 16 0
VODI 0 19 193 888 1063 189 28 0
ODI 0 4 114 769 1272 486 105 2
CDI 0 0 121 1112 2955 4347 1222 28
VCDI 0 0 43 445 2585 12520 37459 27209

Date: 2017-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59862 22076 5382 2248 366 54 8 0
OW 50 132 239 1035 589 79 24 0
VODI 0 46 206 941 1122 299 84 11
ODI 0 8 157 841 1185 503 133 32
CDI 0 9 136 1210 3080 5544 1649 62
VCDI 0 5 65 524 2115 14735 36252 23950
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59862 22098 5403 2373 513 72 9 0
OW 50 116 226 911 491 74 26 0
VODI 0 42 194 953 1141 269 65 16
ODI 0 6 167 858 1094 551 141 32
CDI 0 7 133 1191 3145 5591 1653 58
VCDI 0 7 62 513 2073 14657 36256 23949

Date: 2017-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60264 22630 5348 2033 333 41 2 0
OW 46 41 402 1497 295 46 15 0
VODI 0 3 93 1684 1282 102 22 0
ODI 0 0 91 855 2562 381 38 8
CDI 0 0 39 843 4621 7678 624 32
VCDI 0 0 12 245 1598 13628 34566 23048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60262 22522 5012 2155 581 124 28 0
OW 48 108 274 1021 487 75 35 0
VODI 0 34 285 930 1149 259 93 10
ODI 0 7 211 983 1263 442 116 33
CDI 0 3 145 1473 4434 5370 1711 77
VCDI 0 0 58 595 2777 15606 33284 22968

Date: 2017-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62475 21975 4318 2654 362 46 7 0
OW 43 47 352 1644 420 52 15 0
VODI 0 19 192 1431 1497 103 24 0
ODI 0 19 152 969 2320 449 51 0
CDI 0 2 103 1354 4424 5655 1894 2
VCDI 0 0 19 394 2464 11751 31954 25396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62474 21776 3843 2562 610 110 28 0
OW 44 148 295 1051 495 75 34 0
VODI 0 67 335 1044 1144 218 80 1
ODI 0 25 322 1051 1219 511 65 15
CDI 0 46 266 1852 4699 4299 2689 108
VCDI 0 0 75 886 3320 12843 31049 25274

Date: 2017-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62595 21657 4780 3058 343 23 0 0
OW 50 118 329 1740 635 65 2 0
VODI 0 52 235 1465 1328 215 22 0
ODI 0 17 215 1236 2123 764 74 0
CDI 0 15 203 1589 4012 6270 2558 0
VCDI 0 0 35 624 2374 8594 30772 26861
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62594 21372 4487 2973 607 86 7 0
OW 51 189 241 1018 527 74 24 0
VODI 0 172 341 1365 970 245 50 0
ODI 0 60 285 1349 1096 731 115 0
CDI 0 66 327 1976 4951 5690 3459 0
VCDI 0 0 116 1031 2664 9105 29773 26861


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