Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60096 20775 3079 1857 385 59 0 0
OW 60 31 111 591 557 97 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 358 895 377 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 134 589 428 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 593 1557 192 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 229 2825 7962 5091
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60926 19182 3954 1813 532 85 0 0
OW 60 24 166 562 604 176 23 0
VODI 0 0 6 379 832 315 35 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 489 317 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 647 1769 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 205 2803 7224 5417
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56614 22152 5277 2092 471 35 0 0
OW 56 4 38 708 423 53 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 454 907 103 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 1103 277 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 647 2081 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 253 3356 6579 5095
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56493 22015 5142 2903 447 50 0 0
OW 54 5 42 638 523 66 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 389 865 194 45 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 764 262 116 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 717 1898 221 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 292 3811 6212 4730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56493 22015 5142 3022 563 59 0 0
OW 54 4 39 553 566 71 4 0
VODI 0 1 3 349 795 199 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 667 281 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 728 1870 274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 289 3801 6182 4730

Date: 2017-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57973 19721 5961 3023 646 18 0 0
OW 54 2 27 597 621 98 11 0
VODI 0 0 3 332 834 270 18 0
ODI 0 0 2 176 629 276 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 929 1740 319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 488 4356 5312 4495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57974 19721 5949 3135 784 37 1 0
OW 53 1 29 508 609 106 10 0
VODI 0 1 13 312 787 262 16 0
ODI 0 0 1 152 575 303 29 0
CDI 0 0 1 100 872 1657 238 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 520 4393 5401 4495

Date: 2017-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59055 22264 3668 2059 365 15 0 0
OW 52 20 21 679 319 30 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 480 726 62 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 1288 239 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 1131 2757 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 3716 5232 4469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59055 22254 3632 2263 774 66 5 0
OW 52 29 40 486 454 123 26 0
VODI 0 2 16 302 730 178 67 0
ODI 0 0 3 178 557 216 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 918 1836 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 442 4400 5161 4469

Date: 2017-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57605 23215 4613 1996 315 25 0 0
OW 51 9 29 680 393 28 6 0
VODI 0 0 3 423 819 103 26 0
ODI 0 0 0 139 848 229 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 201 1186 2252 369 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 145 3110 5483 4710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57604 23215 4573 2083 702 135 32 0
OW 52 9 45 503 488 95 46 0
VODI 0 0 20 355 559 90 83 0
ODI 0 0 7 194 535 191 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 155 919 1769 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 159 503 3467 5475 4710

Date: 2017-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59337 22122 4219 1901 279 31 5 0
OW 51 9 51 666 449 48 17 0
VODI 0 0 14 428 759 163 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 147 607 271 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 253 1022 2777 656 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 63 2476 5124 5007
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59337 22110 4144 2081 800 153 61 0
OW 51 20 62 479 374 79 63 0
VODI 0 1 57 298 503 145 66 0
ODI 0 0 21 153 376 274 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 317 756 2277 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 370 2838 5229 5007


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