Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6 6 44 6 0 0 0
OW 0 21 22 28 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 44 64 59 3 0 0
ODI 0 14 51 135 151 52 10 0
CDI 0 15 93 326 616 760 217 3
VCDI 0 0 8 444 1439 4212 14368 22618
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 20 50 11 0 0 0
OW 0 30 43 58 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 44 116 62 1 0 0
ODI 0 40 80 186 158 29 3 0
CDI 0 33 197 338 844 674 107 0
VCDI 0 6 117 673 1581 4924 13404 21946
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 120 186 112 28 1 0 0
OW 0 43 164 225 35 10 0 0
VODI 0 25 110 372 108 11 2 0
ODI 0 12 148 328 265 61 26 0
CDI 0 0 80 586 1179 1145 159 0
VCDI 0 0 42 345 827 4464 12876 21771
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 235 154 120 12 1 0 0
OW 0 71 127 237 49 19 0 0
VODI 0 16 190 334 125 11 3 0
ODI 0 22 131 272 224 79 18 0
CDI 0 4 152 671 1013 818 234 0
VCDI 0 0 45 353 1186 3737 15884 19319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 265 194 173 19 1 0 0
OW 0 43 113 189 48 18 0 0
VODI 0 16 188 327 130 17 3 0
ODI 0 21 125 262 212 94 18 0
CDI 0 3 142 663 1027 783 260 1
VCDI 0 0 37 373 1173 3752 15858 19318

Date: 2017-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 236 147 131 25 2 0 0
OW 0 71 141 217 57 15 0 0
VODI 0 37 213 291 131 20 23 0
ODI 0 27 131 292 183 71 63 0
CDI 0 14 186 775 943 558 548 0
VCDI 0 0 7 405 1272 4380 18223 16031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 254 182 144 40 3 0 0
OW 0 62 122 215 54 15 0 0
VODI 0 32 229 280 129 20 23 0
ODI 0 25 118 282 182 73 61 0
CDI 0 12 154 782 953 613 517 0
VCDI 0 0 20 408 1253 4322 18256 16031

Date: 2017-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 366 503 337 36 2 0 0
OW 0 103 226 374 52 13 0 0
VODI 0 16 84 414 202 27 1 0
ODI 0 3 79 324 431 110 18 0
CDI 0 0 67 551 1352 1458 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 569 4531 19794 13511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 288 205 156 68 4 0 0
OW 0 90 163 230 79 15 0 0
VODI 0 62 225 229 107 50 28 0
ODI 0 27 116 292 209 89 16 0
CDI 0 21 201 808 1007 939 386 0
VCDI 0 0 49 318 1172 5044 19662 13511

Date: 2017-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 423 707 409 57 2 0 0
OW 0 40 148 223 86 14 0 0
VODI 0 22 76 333 207 37 2 0
ODI 0 1 45 428 518 156 5 0
CDI 0 0 88 570 1509 1596 329 24
VCDI 0 0 27 175 794 4032 18317 14466
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 313 267 183 68 2 0 0
OW 0 73 177 188 73 23 0 0
VODI 0 64 291 207 120 81 1 0
ODI 0 36 168 282 349 118 6 0
CDI 0 0 155 964 1271 1080 359 16
VCDI 0 0 33 314 1290 4533 18287 14474

Date: 2017-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 532 656 325 60 9 0 0
OW 0 89 141 233 94 21 0 0
VODI 0 39 116 346 294 87 4 0
ODI 0 9 103 465 564 213 11 0
CDI 0 6 118 635 1628 1994 675 8
VCDI 0 0 42 219 834 7888 14879 12529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 425 316 196 70 13 0 0
OW 0 96 189 137 92 26 0 0
VODI 0 103 269 189 257 44 2 0
ODI 0 47 179 327 432 139 23 0
CDI 0 4 205 1116 1282 1606 703 8
VCDI 0 0 18 258 1341 8384 14841 12529


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